Yemen's War Has Resumed at a Fiercer Tempo and Is Likely to Be Long, Protracted, and Disastrous for Civilians
Source: Helen Lackner. "There’s No End in Sight to Yemen’s Destructive War." October 23, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
Yemen's war has come back harder than ever, and the Huthis are winning ground while their divided opponents struggle to respond. Because neither side seems ready to stop and the divisions among anti-Huthi forces won't be fixed quickly, the author expects a long, brutal conflict that is hitting civilians hard. She also says the world is paying more attention to strikes on Saudi Arabia than to the suffering inside Yemen.
Conclusion
There is no end in sight to Yemen's renewed war: the conflict is likely to be long and protracted, with disastrous consequences for civilians, and it deserves far more international attention than it is getting.
Premises
- Since July 2026 the war has resumed at a fiercer and more destructive tempo than in 2015, producing thousands of casualties, more than 250,000 displaced people, famine risk, and a besieged Taiz with almost no food, water, or medical supplies.
- The Huthis (Ansar Allah) are militarily stronger and more sophisticated than their opponents, thanks to efficient command, advanced weaponry, support from Iran and Hezbollah, technology purchases, and AI tools, and they have taken the southern Red Sea coast, including Mokha and Bab al-Mandab.
- The Huthis have strong motives to keep fighting: economic hardship under the US terrorist designation and the withdrawal of aid, the threat of a tighter Saudi–IRG alignment and new Saudi-led defence coalitions, and a window of opportunity while the US and Israel are distracted.
- The IRG and its Saudi backers remain fragmented and uncoordinated, as shown by their rapid collapse in September, the stalled 'Dawn of Yemen' counteroffensive, the failure to lift the Taiz siege, and the Shabwa massacre of recruits, and they have underestimated Huthi technology.
- Defeating the Huthis would require unity, a sophisticated strategy, and long-term preparation, none of which the IRG currently has, while the Huthis are unlikely to stop while they hold the advantage.
- International attention has focused on the Huthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and the wider Iran war rather than on the Yemeni civilian toll, even though the Yemen conflict is distinct from the Iran conflict.
Assumptions
- Neither side can achieve a decisive military victory in the near term.
- Fragmentation among anti-Huthi forces will persist and will not be fixed quickly.
- The Huthis will keep escalating while they believe they hold the advantage, and the US and Israel will remain distracted.
- Regional dynamics (the Iran war, Saudi involvement) will keep feeding the conflict rather than pushing the parties toward a settlement.
- Greater international attention would help reduce suffering or push toward peace.
- Civilian lives in Yemen are as morally significant as those in Saudi Arabia, so attention should be proportionate to the toll.