Why NATO's Future Depends on Winning Over the American Public, Not Just Trump
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/leslie-vinjamuri. "Never mind Trump – if Europe wants to save Nato, it must win over the American people | Leslie Vinjamuri | The Guardian." September 22, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that European leaders can't just rely on convincing Trump to stay committed to NATO—they need to win over everyday Americans too, especially in places like the Midwest. She points to Mark Rutte's visit to Iowa as a smart move, since polls show many Americans still support NATO but don't fully trust that Europe holds up its end of the bargain, and populist rhetoric could easily turn public opinion against the alliance.
Conclusion
European leaders must go beyond presidential diplomacy with Trump and directly engage the American public to secure NATO's long-term future.
Premises
- Relying solely on meetings with Trump to secure NATO's future is risky given his uncertain commitment to the alliance
- Historically, American public support has been essential to sustaining the transatlantic partnership, not just elite/presidential decisions
- Domestic dissatisfaction with American democracy's failure to deliver prosperity (e.g., healthcare costs) creates fertile ground for populists to turn public opinion against foreign commitments like NATO
- Polling shows Americans broadly support NATO (68% favor maintaining/increasing commitment) but confidence that Europe would reciprocate defense has declined (from 62% to 47%)
- A persistent myth that Europe free-rides on US defense spending undermines public support and needs to be countered with facts about increased European defense investment
- Framing NATO's value in terms of everyday concerns (jobs, energy prices, technology resilience, family safety) rather than abstract diplomatic language will resonate more effectively with ordinary Americans
- Rutte's outreach to Iowa and similar efforts by organizations like the Ditchley Foundation demonstrate a viable model for public diplomacy that should be expanded
Assumptions
- American public opinion can meaningfully influence US foreign policy decisions, including a president's commitment to NATO
- The American public is receptive to persuasion and can be moved by accurate information about European defense spending
- European leaders have sufficient resources, access, and credibility to conduct effective public diplomacy across the US, including in non-elite regions
- Correcting misperceptions (e.g., the 'free-riding' myth) will translate into durable political support for NATO
- Public support translates into political pressure that constrains or shapes presidential decision-making on international alliances