Western Narratives of China's Imminent Collapse Are Dangerous Self-Deception
Source: The American Conservative. "The China Collapse That Wasn’t - The American Conservative." February 11, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
The author argues that American leaders keep telling themselves China is about to fall apart, but this is wishful thinking that ignores China's real military and economic strength. This dangerous self-deception prevents America from developing realistic strategies to compete with a rising China.
Conclusion
Western elites' persistent belief that China is about to collapse is not only factually wrong but strategically dangerous, preventing realistic assessment and effective policy responses to China's actual rise
Premises
- Repeated predictions of Xi Jinping's downfall, military coups, and regime collapse have consistently failed to materialize
- China's military capabilities have grown strong enough that Pentagon assessments show they could defeat the US in a Taiwan conflict
- China achieved a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in late 2025 despite trade wars, indicating economic resilience rather than collapse
- China has successfully transitioned from an agrarian economy to the world's second-largest economy and largest manufacturing power in just 50 years
- Xi's purges of military leaders demonstrate consolidation of power, not weakness, as authoritarian leaders only act when they feel strong
- China controls critical global supply chains including 30% of manufacturing capacity, rare earth refining, and key industrial inputs
- Historical precedent shows manufacturing-based economies are more resilient than financialized economies
Assumptions
- Military and economic strength are reliable indicators of regime stability
- Historical patterns of economic transition and authoritarian consolidation apply to modern China
- Pentagon military assessments are more credible than media speculation about internal Chinese politics
- Manufacturing capacity provides more strategic resilience than financial dominance
- Western media and intelligence reports about Chinese internal dynamics are systematically unreliable