Vannacci's far-right movement threatens Meloni's 2027 re-election and she should confront him on moral grounds
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/riccardo-alcaro. "Giorgia Meloni is Italy’s great political survivor. Could one man be about to bring her down? | Riccardo Alcaro | The Guardian." October 23, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Meloni looks strong, but a new far-right party led by ex-general Roberto Vannacci is eating into the right-wing vote and could cost her the 2027 election. Teaming up with him would be awkward and risky because his views on Russia, the EU, women and migration clash with hers. The author argues she should instead publicly confront him as extreme and treat respect for EU democratic principles as a line that can't be crossed, even if that's risky.
Conclusion
Roberto Vannacci's new far-right party poses a serious threat to Meloni's re-election in 2027, and because an alliance with him is problematic, Meloni should delegitimise him as incompatible with EU democratic principles, even at the risk of losing the election, rather than accommodate him.
Premises
- Meloni is currently strong: her government is the longest-serving in Italian republican history, her approval is about 41%, and her Brothers of Italy party has largely retained its support.
- Vannacci's new party, National Future, is drawing support away from Salvini's League, a junior partner in Meloni's coalition, and thereby imperilling the coalition's re-election chances.
- An alliance with Vannacci is electorally logical but ideologically hard: his positions on remigration, extra votes for parents, abortion, abolishing the crime of femicide, easing eurozone fiscal discipline, opposing defence integration and Ukraine support, and rapprochement with Russia clash with Meloni's politics and positioning.
- Accommodation is costly: Forza Italia fears losing moderate voters, parts of the League are rebelling, and Vannacci would be a restive and unreliable partner.
- Meloni's current strategy of hardening on migration and deploying troops to Milan may not be enough to neutralise Vannacci, and pressure for a deal may grow.
- The alternative strategy of delegitimising Vannacci as extremist and Russia-aligned could win over moderate voters from centrist parties, though it risks losing the election and would not regain the most extreme nativist voters.
- Treating commitment to the EU's democratic principles as a moral red line sends a powerful message and is something conservative nationalists like Meloni can impose on fringe forces to their right.
Assumptions
- Polling shifts toward Vannacci's party will persist until the 2027 election and translate into lost seats for the coalition.
- Vannacci's voters are largely drawn from the existing right-wing coalition rather than from new or non-voting segments.
- Moderate voters are persuadable by an anti-extremism message and would prefer Meloni to centrist parties if she distances herself from Vannacci.
- Meloni values European cohesion and democratic principles enough to accept electoral risk.
- Meloni's stance on Ukraine and the EU is sincere and is a durable part of her brand.
- What is good for European democratic norms should weigh in her strategic decision, not just electoral calculation.