US War on Iran Will Accelerate Global Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
Source: Emma Claire Foley. "The Iran War Will Probably Increase Nuclear Weapons Globally." March 12, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that Trump's war on Iran, supposedly meant to stop nuclear weapons spread, will actually cause more countries to get nuclear weapons. She says US allies are losing trust in American protection and starting to build their own nukes instead.
Conclusion
The US war on Iran will likely increase nuclear weapons proliferation globally, contrary to its stated anti-proliferation goals
Premises
- The US is abandoning diplomatic solutions in favor of military action, having left the Iran nuclear deal and launched preemptive attacks without coherent justification
- US allies like France are already expanding their nuclear arsenals and European countries are expressing interest in developing nuclear weapons in response to current instability
- The US has taken a permissive attitude toward nuclear proliferation by allies, showing muted responses to South Korea's nuclear considerations and planning nuclear deals with Saudi Arabia without safeguards
- US officials acknowledge they cannot prevent proliferation and view it as a risk to be managed militarily rather than prevented diplomatically
- The attacks demonstrate US power limitations, causing allies to question the reliability of the US 'nuclear umbrella' and consider nuclear independence
- Europe is developing military-industrial capabilities that could eventually support nuclear weapons programs if technological sharing occurs among European governments
Assumptions
- Nuclear weapons proliferation is inherently destabilizing and dangerous
- Diplomatic solutions are preferable to military action for preventing proliferation
- US allies' nuclear ambitions are directly caused by doubts about US reliability rather than other security concerns
- The US has both the capability and legal obligation to prevent nuclear proliferation
- Military action without diplomatic justification undermines long-term strategic goals