US-Israeli war on Iran will strengthen China-Russia alliance and expose fossil fuel dependency risks
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/adam-hanieh. "If oil price shocks weren’t bad enough, Trump’s war could have other unintended consequences | Adam Hanieh | The Guardian." March 12, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that the war against Iran will backfire on the US by pushing China closer to Russia for oil supplies. Since China buys most of Iran's oil and the Gulf region supplies critical materials for global food production, this conflict will hurt ordinary people worldwide while strengthening America's biggest rivals.
Conclusion
The US-Israeli war against Iran will have significant unintended geopolitical and economic consequences, particularly strengthening the China-Russia alliance and highlighting the dangers of continued fossil fuel dependency
Premises
- China consumes about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, making it highly vulnerable to Gulf supply disruptions
- The center of gravity of global oil trade has shifted from West to East, with China now accounting for roughly one-quarter of global oil imports
- If disruptions persist, China will likely deepen its reliance on alternative suppliers, particularly Russia, reinforcing their growing energy partnership
- The Gulf region is now a major supplier of industrial commodities including fertilizers essential to global food production, with disruptions already causing fertilizer price increases
- Global energy disruptions hit the most vulnerable societies hardest, deepening inequalities within and between countries
- Despite decades of discussion about energy transitions, global production and trade remain heavily dependent on oil and gas from the Gulf region
Assumptions
- The US-Israeli war against Iran will continue long enough to cause sustained supply disruptions
- China's strategic petroleum reserves are insufficient for long-term disruptions
- Russia has the capacity and willingness to significantly increase oil supplies to China
- Historical patterns of uneven impact from global shocks will repeat in this crisis
- Current fossil fuel dependency represents a structural vulnerability rather than a temporary condition