US-Iran Conflict is Inevitable Due to Structural Similarities and Historical Misunderstandings
Source: Jude Russo. "Iran’s Grand Tragedy - The American Conservative." February 22, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
America and Iran keep fighting because they're actually too similar - both countries have the same internal problems and can't understand each other's history. Their governments are set up in ways that make it almost impossible to make peace, so they're probably doomed to keep having conflicts.
Conclusion
The United States and Iran are destined for conflict because their structural similarities and mutual misunderstanding of each other's historical experiences make peaceful coexistence nearly impossible
Premises
- Both the US and Iran suffer from similar structural problems: overextended global commitments, aging corrupt leadership, diplomatic rigidity, internal political dysfunction, and reliance on hard power
- The two nations have fundamentally different historical perspectives that prevent mutual understanding - Americans focus on the hostage crisis while Iranians prioritize Mossadegh's overthrow and the Iran-Iraq War
- Iran's defense strategy was forged by the Iran-Iraq War, creating structural dependencies on unconventional warfare, proxy forces, and IRGC dominance that cannot easily be abandoned
- American policy toward Iran has been consistently counterproductive, including supporting both sides in the Iran-Iraq War and facilitating Iraq's use of chemical weapons
- Iran's current military and political structure makes Western demands (like abandoning proxies or missiles) equivalent to asking the US to abandon core defense capabilities
- The cyclical nature of failed diplomacy followed by military threats demonstrates that both nations are trapped by their internal structures and historical grievances
Assumptions
- Internal political and economic structures determine foreign policy behavior more than rational strategic calculation
- Historical experiences and grievances are more influential than current geopolitical realities
- Structural similarities between nations can lead to conflict rather than cooperation
- Diplomatic solutions require fundamental internal changes that neither country can realistically make
- The pattern of past US-Iran interactions predicts future outcomes