US and Israel's Underestimation of Iran Led to Regional Escalation and Civilian Suffering
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/aniseh-bassiri-tabrizi. "The US and Israel gravely underestimated Iran’s response – here in the UAE, we are seeing the consequences | Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi | The Guardian." March 4, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that US and Israeli leaders ignored expert warnings and attacked Iran without properly considering the consequences. This led to exactly the kind of regional war that experts predicted, causing ordinary people across the Middle East to suffer while their leaders continue fighting.
Conclusion
The US and Israel gravely underestimated Iran's response to their attacks, leading to predictable regional escalation that is causing widespread civilian suffering across the Middle East
Premises
- Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel and Gulf states followed worst-case escalation scenarios that experts had predicted since June
- Trump's admission of surprise at Iran's Gulf strikes demonstrates that US leadership failed to heed expert warnings about regional spillover
- The conflict has existential stakes for Iran (regime survival, territorial integrity, deterrence credibility) making de-escalation unlikely
- Ordinary civilians across the region are bearing the costs through disrupted lives, uncertainty, and safety risks they did not choose
- The escalation is affecting global markets, supply chains, and forcing governments worldwide to prepare for spillovers
- Gulf states are being forced to recalibrate defenses and contingency plans despite their efforts to maintain stability
Assumptions
- Expert predictions and modeling of regional escalation scenarios were accurate and should have been heeded
- The current conflict represents an existential threat to Iran's regime
- Regional conflicts inevitably spread beyond their initial boundaries
- Civilian suffering should be a primary consideration in military and foreign policy decisions
- The US and Israeli leadership had access to expert warnings but chose to ignore them