Ukraine's unexpected resilience has fundamentally altered Putin's war strategy and goals
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rajan-menon. "Four years ago, the world expected Ukraine to be crushed, but it has stood firm. So what now for Putin? | Rajan Menon | The Guardian." February 25, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Ukraine has shocked everyone by surviving four years against much stronger Russia, forcing Putin to lower his war goals. Despite Russia's huge advantages, Ukraine's clever use of drones and strong fighting spirit have made the war too costly for Putin to achieve his original objectives.
Conclusion
Putin's war against Ukraine has failed to achieve its original objectives and he may now be seeking a face-saving exit through territorial concessions, despite his army's inability to fully control the territories he demands
Premises
- Ukraine has defied all expert predictions by surviving four years against a militarily superior Russia with 3x the population and 10x the GDP
- Russia has suffered catastrophic losses - up to 1.2 million casualties including 219,000-325,000 deaths, plus 24,000 pieces of destroyed equipment
- Ukraine's drone warfare and technological innovation have neutralized Russia's conventional military advantages and prevented maneuver warfare
- Russia has been forced to recruit foreign fighters and North Korean troops despite its larger population, indicating severe manpower problems
- Putin has shifted from demanding four provinces to proposing a deal for just the rest of Donetsk, suggesting recognition that his original goals are unattainable
- 75% of Ukrainians still reject territorial concessions despite war-weariness, and Zelensky refuses Putin's current proposal
- Russia's maximum daily territorial gains have slowed to just 70 meters in key offensives, with only 1.5% of Ukrainian territory gained since 2024
Assumptions
- Military casualties and equipment losses accurately reflect the true cost and effectiveness of the war effort
- Putin's territorial demands represent his actual minimum acceptable outcomes rather than negotiating positions
- Ukrainian public opinion polls accurately reflect genuine sentiment rather than wartime propaganda effects
- Russia's recruitment of foreign fighters indicates desperation rather than strategic diversification
- Drone warfare fundamentally changes conventional military calculations and advantages