Ukraine's future must not be decided by Trump, Putin and Xi without Kyiv: Europe should resist a return to great-power bargaining
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/editorial. "The Guardian view on Trump and Putin: Ukraine’s future is not theirs to bargain away | Editorial | The Guardian." October 19, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The Guardian argues that Trump, Putin and Xi shouldn't decide Ukraine's fate without Ukraine in the room. Doing so would reward Russian aggression, let the powerful dictate to the weak, and damage trust between Europe and America. Europe should push back, because deals made to flatter strongmen rarely last.
Conclusion
Ukraine's future cannot legitimately be settled by powerful leaders (Trump, Putin, Xi) bargaining without Ukraine at the table, and Europe must challenge this return to 'diplomacy of the strong for the strong' rather than let it stand.
Premises
- Ukraine has a right to determine its own future, and that right cannot be waved away by a self-serving Russian proposal.
- Putin has proposed a trilateral summit with Trump and Xi that would exclude Kyiv and Europe, elevate Moscow, and give China recognition as a mediator, while offering Trump a diesel deal that helps him politically before the midterms.
- If Trump agrees to negotiate Ukraine's future without Ukraine present, he hands Putin a victory before talks begin and signals that strongmen determine the fate of weaker nations.
- Trump appears susceptible to Putin's overtures, and his diesel deal appears to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression.
- Rewarding Moscow and pressuring Ukraine into a raw deal would be a betrayal that deepens European doubts about America's willingness to deter aggression or honour its Nato commitments.
- Deals between powerful rulers do not guarantee a lasting settlement, as the short-lived 1873 Three Emperors' League illustrates.
Assumptions
- Sovereign states have a moral and political right to participate in decisions about their own future, and this right should constrain great-power diplomacy.
- The reported plans for a trilateral summit and the diesel deal are accurate and reflect Putin's real intentions and Trump's likely behaviour.
- Trump is motivated primarily by ego and domestic political needs rather than by a considered strategy on Ukraine.
- Excluding Ukraine would produce an unjust or unstable outcome, rather than a pragmatic ceasefire that Ukraine might ultimately accept.
- The 1873 Three Emperors' League is a relevant analogy for a modern US-Russia-China arrangement.
- Europe has the capacity and will to influence the process or to take on greater responsibility for its own defence.