Trump's Strategy to Cut China's Oil Supply Through Military Action Against Iran and Venezuela Will Likely Trigger World War III
Source: The American Conservative. "Exploding the Idea That Trump’s Wars Can Handle China - The American Conservative." March 5, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
The author argues that Trump's plan to attack Iran and Venezuela to cut off China's oil supply is extremely dangerous and won't work. He points to how America's oil embargo against Japan led directly to Pearl Harbor, warning that trying the same thing against nuclear-armed China could start World War III.
Conclusion
The Trump administration's strategy of using military force against Iran and Venezuela to cut off China's oil supply is extremely dangerous and likely to fail, potentially triggering a world war
Premises
- The Trump administration's reported strategy is to decapitate Venezuela and topple Iran to cut off China's oil supply
- Historical precedent shows that cutting off oil supplies to great powers leads to catastrophic wars, as demonstrated by the U.S. oil embargo against Japan before Pearl Harbor
- Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was a direct result of Roosevelt's oil embargo, which threatened Japan's existential survival
- China is a nuclear-armed power, making oil strangulation even more dangerous than it was with Japan in 1941
- The global oil market will simply reorder to accommodate Chinese demand, with other suppliers selling oil 'under the table' for higher prices
- The strategy is based on ignorance of how modern global oil markets actually function
Assumptions
- The reported Trump administration strategy accurately reflects actual policy intentions
- Historical patterns of great power behavior remain consistent across different eras
- China would respond to oil strangulation similarly to how Japan responded in 1941
- Global oil markets are sufficiently flexible to route around attempted supply cuts
- Nuclear weapons make great power conflicts more dangerous than in the 1940s