Trump's Return Shows US Democratic Resilience Is Fragile, So Europe Must Stop Relying on America
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rafaelbehr. "Even if US democracy can be salvaged from Trump, Europe is moving on | Rafael Behr | The Guardian." November 3, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Trump's return to power after trying to overturn an election shows that American democracy is more fragile than Europeans assumed. Even if Democrats do well in the midterms, it will take decades to trust the US again, so Europe is already planning for a world where it can't count on America. Europeans should also study America's mistakes so the same thing doesn't happen to them.
Conclusion
Even if US democracy survives Trump and the midterms go well, trust in America cannot quickly be restored, so European democracies are right to treat US friendship as unreliable, reduce their dependence on it, and learn from America's failure to guard against authoritarianism.
Premises
- Trump's 2020 defeat showed that US democracy was mechanically functional but not culturally robust: his supporters attempted violent subversion, yet within four years voters reinstated him.
- Warnings framing Trump as a threat to democracy, from Biden and Harris, were tried and failed to persuade a majority of US voters, who prioritised economic concerns such as the price of eggs.
- Trump's current political weakness stems from economic disappointment and a failed war with Iran, not from voters rejecting his anti-democratic conduct; a nation that avoids dictatorship because the aspiring dictator was incompetent is not durably immune.
- Trump has a record of denying unfavourable results and the Republican Party has endorsed his lies and coercion, so even peaceful, fair midterms cannot be confidently assumed and any good result would not prove lasting resilience.
- Biden's 2021 assurance that 'America is back' gave allies false comfort, and European states now recognise reliance on the US defence umbrella and technology as a strategic vulnerability.
- Trump's trade policy, indulgence of Putin and scorn for NATO have undermined the case for Brexit and for a UK 'special relationship' with Washington, pushing Britain towards Europe.
- Trumpian nationalism could also spread to Europe, and the 20th-century historical lessons that were meant to inoculate democracies failed to persuade US voters.
Assumptions
- The 2024 election result reflects deep cultural weakness in US democratic commitment rather than contingent factors such as inflation or candidate-specific issues.
- Trump's reelection and behaviour are a reliable guide to the long-term trajectory of US politics and foreign policy.
- Another Trump-like leader or movement could return in the US, so a good midterm result would not restore reliability.
- Trust between nations depends on the stability of the partner's democratic culture, not just its current policies.
- European countries can realistically reduce their defence and technology dependence on the US.
- Voters' prioritisation of economic issues over democratic norms indicates weak commitment to those norms.