Trump's pro-Russian turn is damaging but cannot change the war's trajectory if Ukraine's allies stay steadfast
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/editorial. "The Guardian view on Trump’s deal with Putin: grim and grubby, but not gamechanging | Editorial | The Guardian." October 14, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The Guardian argues that Trump's shady deal with Putin and his pressure on Ukraine are ugly, but they won't decide the war because Russia is already struggling and misjudges Ukraine's determination. Europe should keep backing Ukraine openly and push Trump privately, so Putin learns that Washington's betrayal won't save him.
Conclusion
Trump's grubby deal with Putin and renewed pressure on Ukraine are grim but not gamechanging: Ukraine's European allies should publicly reaffirm their support, and privately work to steer Trump, so that Putin sees that American perfidy will not alter the course of a war Russia is losing.
Premises
- Trump has reverted to the view that Ukrainian capitulation is a precondition for peace. He has called for a change of government in Ukraine, claimed a partial ceasefire that Russia ignored, and Ukraine reports losing US intelligence warnings and Starlink access, which suggests coordinated pressure favouring Russia.
- Trump's motive is domestic and personal: he wants lower pump prices before the midterms, and he cannot admit that the real driver of high energy prices is his own failing war against Iran, so he blames Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries and Zelenskyy's supposed intransigence.
- This motive led Trump to make a deal to import Russian diesel in flagrant breach of international sanctions, which is why the editorial calls it grubby.
- Russia is failing to achieve its war aims: Putin's forces have made no significant advances for many months and the Russian economy is suffering from Ukrainian missile and drone counterstrikes.
- Russia's failure is structural, because the invasion rests on a delusional hatred of Ukrainian nationhood and consistently underestimates Ukraine's will to resist, a flaw that collusion with Trump cannot fix.
- Trump's pro-Russian positions have been disrupted before through private persuasion by European allies, and public denunciation is less effective than private argument and visible solidarity.
Assumptions
- Ukraine's will to resist is durable enough to withstand the loss of US intelligence sharing, Starlink access and diplomatic backing.
- European support can substitute for, or at least offset, withdrawn American support in practical terms.
- Putin's decisions respond to signals of Western resolve, so visible solidarity can change his calculations.
- Russia's current battlefield stagnation and economic strain will persist and are not temporary.
- Trump's pressure on Ukraine is driven by domestic politics and vanity rather than a settled strategic realignment toward Russia, so it can be redirected.
- The reports of intelligence and Starlink cutoffs reflect deliberate US policy rather than technical or incidental factors.