Trump's pro-Russia moves are provoking a GOP backlash that may finally carry real political cost before the midterms
Source: Ian Prasad Philbrick. "Trump's loyalty to Putin is causing a fight among Republicans ahead of the midterms.." October 21, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
With the midterms about two weeks away, Trump is taking a series of pro-Russia steps that even many Republicans are publicly criticizing. The author argues that this fight distracts and demoralizes the party, and because Trump is on the unpopular side with GOP voters, his long-time closeness to Putin might finally cost him politically, even though it hasn't before.
Conclusion
Trump's long-standing affinity for Putin's Russia may finally hurt him and his party in a meaningful way, because his escalating pro-Russia actions are provoking a public Republican backlash just before the midterms, even though such behavior has been politically costless in the past.
Premises
- In recent days Trump has taken a series of pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine actions: waiving new sanctions on Russia by executive order, reportedly holding up interceptor missiles Ukraine needs, reportedly cooperating with Musk to limit Ukraine's satellite access, and sending envoy Witkoff to praise Putin as a 'humanitarian'.
- These actions have drawn criticism from a widening group of Republicans, including frequent Trump critics (Tillis, Bacon, Collins) and others not usually critical (Max Miller, Fitzpatrick, Ernst), as well as the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board.
- The public intra-party fight forces Republican officials to spend scarce pre-election time criticizing their own administration rather than Democrats, and it is unlikely to help motivate GOP voters, who polls suggest are already struggling with enthusiasm.
- Trump has taken the less popular side: although overall American support for Ukraine has softened, more Republicans than not still favor Zelensky over Putin, aid to Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia.
- Trump's approval ratings keep setting new lows and polls suggest Republicans are headed for a wipeout, so the party has little cushion to absorb another self-inflicted controversy.
- With millions of Americans already voting early, any course reversal by Trump would likely come too late to change the political outcome.
Assumptions
- Public criticism by Republican officials is genuine or at least influential enough to affect voter perceptions and turnout, rather than being purely opportunistic noise.
- Voters' opinions on Ukraine and Russia are salient enough to affect their votes, unlike in 2016 and 2024 when such concerns were overlooked.
- Current polling accurately reflects the likely midterm outcome and the effect of this controversy.
- Reports from the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal about missile holds and Musk's satellite actions are accurate.
- The current moment differs in relevant ways from 2016 and 2024, when similar warnings failed to damage Trump.
- Intra-party conflict depresses turnout and distracts from campaigning more than it helps vulnerable Republicans distance themselves from an unpopular president.