Trump's Pre-Midterm Pivot to Putin Is Politically Irrational, Suggesting He Genuinely Wants Russia to Win
Source: Susan B. Glasser. "Trump’s October Surprise Is a Pivot to Putin | The New Yorker." October 15, 2026. www.newyorker.com
The Gist
Trump chose to side with Putin against Ukraine just before an election in which it hurts him and his party, and the diesel deal can't help in time. Since political explanations don't hold up, the author suggests the simplest remaining possibility is that Trump actually wants Russia to win.
Conclusion
Trump's sudden pre-midterm turn against Zelensky and toward Putin cannot be explained as a bid to help Republicans win, so it may reflect a genuine desire for Russia to prevail in Ukraine.
Premises
- Trump waived energy sanctions to buy Russian diesel, publicly blamed Zelensky rather than Russia for the war, called for Zelensky's removal, and announced an 'energy ceasefire' that Russia immediately violated, all less than three weeks before the midterms.
- The move is politically damaging: Republican lawmakers (Bacon, six GOP senators, Pence) and conservative outlets (WSJ editorial board) condemned it, and Putin and his war are even less popular with Americans than Trump, whose approval is at a record low of 36% on Fox News.
- The diesel purchase cannot plausibly deliver relief on fuel prices before the November 3rd election, and Trump must know this.
- The alternative explanation, that Trump is building a scapegoat in Zelensky for poor midterm results, has some merit, but demanding Ukraine fire its president is not a message that resonates with voters.
- Trump has a long record of tilting toward Moscow (2016 speech, Helsinki 2018, the 2019 Zelensky pressure, the 2025 Oval Office confrontation, repeated reversals of tentative pro-Kyiv steps after talking to Putin), so the behavior fits a consistent pattern rather than a one-off tactical choice.
Assumptions
- Trump is a rational political actor who would normally avoid actions that clearly hurt his party's electoral prospects
- If a political explanation fails, the remaining explanation is a sincere preference for Russian success
- The pattern of past pro-Russia behavior reflects genuine sympathy or alignment rather than transactional or tactical choices
- Trump's decisions are driven by his own motives rather than by Putin's leverage, advisers, or misjudgment
- Public and GOP backlash is evidence of the move's political cost, and Trump is aware of this cost
- The explanations considered (electoral help, scapegoating, genuine preference) are the main plausible ones