Trump's post-midterm weakness brings global hope but also the risk of dangerous lashing out abroad
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/simontisdall. "Donald Trump’s power is on the wane. What next for Russia, Israel – and the rest of us? | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian." November 8, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Trump just took a big hit in the midterms, and many people around the world see that as good news. But Tisdall argues a humiliated, stubborn Trump may lash out abroad on Iran, Ukraine and Europe, since he still controls foreign policy. Overall, he thinks the global mood is turning against far-right leaders, but the next two years will be risky.
Conclusion
Trump's power has been significantly diminished by the 2026 midterm defeat, which gives the world reason for hope, but his lame-duck status makes him an unpredictable danger in foreign affairs (Iran, Ukraine/Russia, Europe, Cuba) for the next two years, while the broader global tide against far-right populism continues to turn.
Premises
- The Democratic midterm victories were a personal repudiation of Trump, who made himself the focus of the vote despite rock-bottom approval ratings, leaving him weaker both domestically and internationally.
- Trump rarely compromises; when thwarted he gets angry, doubles down and lashes out, and he is increasingly obsessed with his legacy (Iran nuclear issue, Russia deal, Nobel prize).
- Because Trump retains wide latitude over defense and foreign policy independent of Congress, he can still resume the Iran war, pressure Ukraine into concessions, abandon NATO, or pursue regime change in Cuba.
- Trump's weakness may push Putin to seek a deal while Trump is in office, increasing the risk that Ukraine is pressured into capitulation.
- Democratic control of Congress from January will bring intense scrutiny, possible impeachment, and restoration of the overseas aid budget, which may constrain or distract Trump.
- Trump, at 80 and set in his ways, is unlikely to change course or atone, so two more years of overreach and adventurism are expected.
- Progressive election wins in Hungary, Serbia, Brazil and the US, with Spain and France possibly next, show a global tide turning against far-right populism.
Assumptions
- The midterm results were driven primarily by repudiation of Trump personally rather than other factors.
- Trump's past behavior and temperament reliably predict his future reactions to political defeat.
- A weakened domestic position does not meaningfully reduce his ability to act abroad, though Congress may constrain him.
- Electoral defeats for Trump-aligned parties in different countries reflect a common global trend rather than separate local dynamics.
- Putin's incentives are driven by perceived need to strike a deal before Trump leaves office.
- Trump's motives are self-serving (legacy, business deals) rather than strategic or principled.