Trump's pivot toward Putin and against Ukraine is a betrayal, but likely to be temporary and self-defeating
Source: Ian Prasad Philbrick. "Ukraine–Russia war: Trump is siding with Putin against the U.S. ally. Will it last?." October 16, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
Trump has had a bad week for Ukraine, buying Russian diesel, attacking Zelensky, and briefly cutting Ukraine's satellite access. But the author argues this probably won't last, because Trump has flip-flopped before, the diesel deal looks like a move to cut gas prices before the midterms, and some Republicans are pushing back. Even if it's temporary, it's still a betrayal that could prolong the war.
Conclusion
Trump's latest turn against Ukraine, though a genuine betrayal that has already cost Ukrainian lives, is unlikely to be a lasting strategic realignment, and may ultimately backfire by prolonging the war he promised to end.
Premises
- Trump's recent actions (importing Russian diesel, calling for Ukraine to get a new president, temporarily limiting Ukraine's satellite access, demanding Ukraine stop striking Russian energy infrastructure) are harmful to Ukraine and fit his long-standing admiration for Putin.
- Trump's record on the war is one of waffling: he has sometimes sided with Putin, but has also meaningfully helped Ukraine by allowing it to manufacture American weapon systems and joining Europe in imposing new sanctions on Russia.
- The diesel deal looks like a desperate, short-term attempt to lower gas prices (elevated by the Iran war) ahead of the midterms, rather than a considered, lasting strategic shift.
- A surprising number of Republicans, including several in tough races, are objecting to the diesel deal, and past GOP pushback over Ukraine has blocked some of Trump's most damaging efforts (withholding weapons, threatening to leave NATO).
- By supporting both sides' war efforts (arming Ukraine while subsidizing Russia's economy), Trump is arguably helping prolong the war, undermining his own promise to end it quickly.
Assumptions
- Trump's past pattern of vacillation is a reliable predictor of future behavior.
- Electoral and political pressure (midterms, GOP dissent) will meaningfully constrain Trump's Ukraine policy.
- The motive behind the diesel deal is primarily domestic political desperation rather than a genuine ideological or financial realignment with Russia.
- Buying Russian diesel materially strengthens Russia's war effort.
- Congressional Republican resistance will persist and translate into actual policy constraints rather than just rhetorical criticism.
- Ukraine's temporary loss of satellite access and other setbacks are reversible and not decisive.