Trump's Own Conduct and Policies Are Driving a Midterm Rebuke That May Mark the Beginning of the End of His Presidency
Source: Susan B. Glasser. "Finally, the Beginning of Trump’s End | The New Yorker." November 3, 2026. www.newyorker.com
The Gist
The author argues that because Trump can't realistically be removed through impeachment, the midterm elections are the real check on him, and his own unpopular policies, higher prices, and out-of-touch behavior are setting him up for a big defeat, even among Republicans. She admits predictions could be wrong and that Trump might try to contest the results, but hopes this marks the start of the end of his era.
Conclusion
The 2026 midterm elections, by delivering an electoral rebuke driven partly by Republican defections, may represent the beginning of the end of Trump's political dominance, a development the author welcomes, even though his reaction and further damage remain open risks.
Premises
- Impeachment and removal are effectively unavailable as checks on Trump because the Constitution requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority in a deeply divided country, and Trump was acquitted twice.
- Elections are a powerful alternative constitutional constraint, and Washington insiders across party lines, including most Republicans, polls, and the press, believe this midterm will be a decisive rejection of Trump.
- Trump's own policies have undermined his party: an unpopular and unsuccessful conflict with Iran, costly tariffs, and a trade war with Canada have raised prices, contradicting his 2024 promise to curb inflation.
- Trump has displayed political arrogance and indifference to voters' economic concerns, as in his remark 'I don't give a damn... We're making a freakin' fortune,' while insisting the election be about him and his record.
- His closing speech reinforced this image by focusing on algae in the Reflecting Pool, a costly renovation, a golf course and a triumphal arch rather than addressing voters' concerns.
Assumptions
- Insider consensus and current polling are reasonably reliable indicators of the election outcome, despite the 2020 and 2016 cautionary examples.
- Voters will punish Trump and his candidates for high prices, the Iran conflict, and perceived arrogance.
- A rebuke at the ballot box will meaningfully constrain Trump, or at least mark a turning point in his political power.
- Anecdotal speech content and quotes are representative of Trump's overall campaign and indifference to voters.
- Republican defections will be driven by dissatisfaction with Trump rather than ordinary midterm dynamics, where the president's party typically loses ground.