Trump's Myanmar outreach shows a foreign policy that abandons democratic allies and courts dictators for resources, with harmful results even if it fails
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/steve-bloomfield. "Blunder in, abandon allies and court a dictator: it’s the Trump doctrine, now playing out in Myanmar | Steve Bloomfield | The Guardian." October 18, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Trump is cozying up to Myanmar's brutal military rulers mainly to get at the country's rare earth minerals, dropping the US's earlier stance against their genocide and leaving pro-democracy fighters in the lurch. He thinks the effort will probably fail to get the US what it wants, but that it still emboldens the generals and devastates those resisting them.
Conclusion
The Trump administration's decision to open talks with Myanmar's genocidal junta, driven by a desire for rare earth minerals, is a blundering and corrosive policy that abandons pro-democracy forces and is a disaster for them even if it yields nothing for the US.
Premises
- The US previously condemned the Myanmar military's atrocities (including Rubio's 2017 call for sanctions and prosecution), and the regime's crimes have since escalated into genocide, a 2021 coup, a civil war, and a massive human-made humanitarian disaster.
- The Trump administration has now reversed nearly a decade of united western policy by opening direct talks with the regime and discussing lifting sanctions, without warning allies and with the lobbying help of Trump ally Roger Stone.
- The talks appear aimed at securing access to Myanmar's rare earth minerals rather than at restoring democracy or ending the war, consistent with one-sided resource deals with Ukraine and the DRC.
- The outreach hands the junta a propaganda and legitimacy victory at a time when it is gaining militarily and diplomatically, and it leaves Myanmar's resistance, which hoped for US help, deserted.
- Trump's approach differs from earlier resource-driven US policy because of its rapaciousness, its enrichment of friends and family, and its open support for dictators.
- The policy is unlikely to succeed on its own terms: Congress maintains bipartisan support for sanctions, and most rare earth mines are near the Chinese border and controlled by militias rather than the junta, with China unlikely to allow US access.
Assumptions
- Engaging diplomatically with the junta confers legitimacy and is equivalent to abandoning the resistance, rather than being a possible tool of leverage.
- The rare earth motive is the primary driver of the policy, as inferred from the pattern of behavior and the content of the talks rather than from explicit statements.
- Western unity and sanctions were an effective or at least morally necessary policy worth preserving.
- The pattern in Ukraine, the DRC and Myanmar reflects a coherent 'Trump doctrine' rather than separate, context-specific decisions.
- Myanmar's democratic forces would have benefited materially from US support if it had been maintained.
- Moral consistency in foreign policy (continuing to treat perpetrators of genocide as pariahs) is a legitimate standard for judging US actions.