Trump's midterm defeat will push him to lash out at Europe, so Europeans should abandon hopes of reviving the old transatlantic partnership
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nathalie-tocci. "Trump is humiliated and angry – and Europe is where he’s free to lash out | Nathalie Tocci | The Guardian." November 9, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The midterms went badly for Trump, and Europeans are celebrating, but the author thinks he'll take out his frustration on Europe because he's boxed in elsewhere and his base likes that approach. Europeans shouldn't expect the old friendship to return; even under a future Democratic president the relationship will be more transactional and less sentimental.
Conclusion
Europeans should not expect the Democratic midterm victory to restore the pre-Trump transatlantic relationship; they should brace for worse US behavior toward Europe and Ukraine in the near term, and accept that any rebuilt partnership will be narrower, more interest-based and less sentimental.
Premises
- The midterm results show a large majority of Americans reject Trump's agenda, including the war on Iran, which may force Trump to soften his Middle East policy.
- Trump is constrained in the Middle East and has already achieved most of what he could in Latin America, leaving Europe as the remaining arena in which he can lash out.
- Trump will likely conclude that his mistake was not being Trumpy enough, and his Maga base welcomes warmer ties with Moscow, withdrawal of support for Kyiv and US military disengagement from Europe.
- Trump and Maga view Europe as the mirror image of their domestic 'woke, emasculated liberal' foes, so the foes' comeback at home will increase his rancour toward Europe.
- Trump's promotion of Stephen Miller, a proponent of the 'might makes right' worldview, signals a harder line toward Europe and an expectation that Russia should prevail.
- Even if a Democrat wins in 2028, the US betrayal of Europe cannot be quickly forgotten, and the new generation of Democrats is less committed to Europe than older ones.
Assumptions
- Trump's behavior is driven by emotional reactions (humiliation, anger, rancour) and a need for an outlet, and he will redirect them toward Europe.
- Trump's Maga base is the audience he will play to after the midterms, rather than the broader electorate that just rejected him.
- Trump's personnel choices, such as Miller's promotion, reliably indicate policy direction on Europe and Ukraine.
- Past behavior (insults, tariffs, Greenland threats) is a reliable predictor of future escalation.
- Democratic victories in 2026 and 2028 will not by themselves restore the previous level of transatlantic trust.
- The newer generation of Democrats' weaker attachment to Europe will translate into policy.