Trump's Likely Midterm Repudiation Warrants Cautious Optimism and Heightened Concern About His Response
Source: Susan B. Glasser. "Trump’s Repudiation Is at Hand, Right? | The New Yorker." October 22, 2026. www.newyorker.com
The Gist
Almost every sign says voters are about to deliver a big rebuke to Trump in the midterms, but Democrats have been burned by overconfidence before, so they should stay cautious. The author's bigger worry is Trump himself, who has spent months undermining trust in the election and won't change course after a loss. The worse he does, the more dangerous he may become.
Conclusion
Although all indicators point to a decisive electoral repudiation of Trump in the 2026 midterms, Democrats should hold only cautious optimism, and the greater danger is that a repudiated Trump, who will not moderate and has laid the groundwork to contest results, may prove the most dangerous Trump of all.
Premises
- Nearly every indicator (low approval ratings, an unpopular Iran war with high prices and inflation, perceived presidential corruption, an 11-point Democratic generic ballot lead, GOP panic and spending in safe states) points to a Democratic wave, including Senate competitiveness in deep-red states.
- Trump's unpopularity extends beyond Democrats and independents to Republicans and 2024 Trump voters, undermining the base that previously saved him and the GOP's mid-decade redistricting advantage.
- History shows that Democratic overconfidence and misreading of results has been costly (Clinton's 2016 complacency, the 2022 'red wave averted' spin that encouraged Biden to run again), and the 2018 split result brought rebuke but no real accountability.
- Electoral outcomes are judged against expectations, so anything short of winning the Senate may feel like a disappointment even if the House is won, and the closeness of key Senate races leaves the outcome uncertain.
- Trump has consistently hedged against a midterm loss by casting doubt on the election's legitimacy on over 70% of days in office, attacking mail-in voting, alleging noncitizen voting, calling polls 'rigged,' and threatening to deploy federal resources, and he incited a mob rather than concede in 2020.
- Trump has never accepted blame and will not pivot or moderate after a defeat as Bush and Obama did after their midterm losses.
Assumptions
- Current polling and indicators are accurate enough to predict a Democratic wave, despite past polling misses.
- Trump's past behavior (2020, refusal to accept blame) is a reliable predictor of his behavior after the 2026 midterms.
- The larger the Republican loss, the more aggressively Trump will respond rather than being constrained by institutions, party figures, or electoral reality.
- Trump has meaningful capacity (federal resources, legal levers) to interfere with or contest results.
- Complacency among Democrats and voters is a real risk that could affect turnout or preparedness.
- Analogies between 2016/2022 and 2026 are apt for judging the risk of overconfidence.