Trump's lame-duck summit with Putin and Xi threatens to formalize a three-way division of the world into spheres of influence
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/steve-bloomfield. "As Trump’s time runs out, this could be his most dangerous legacy: a world divided into three | Steve Bloomfield | The Guardian." October 24, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Trump, weakened at home, will use his last two years to chase a big foreign policy moment, and that a summit with Putin and Xi would signal that the world is being carved into zones controlled by three strongmen. That would leave US allies in Europe and Asia exposed and make the US look weak, even if later presidents try to undo it.
Conclusion
A proposed Trump-Putin-Xi summit, pursued by Trump in his weakened final two years, would push the world toward a dangerous division into great-power spheres of influence that sacrifices democratic allies and the rules-based order, and the US would lose from it even if the arrangement proves impermanent.
Premises
- Presidents with little domestic power in their last two years turn to foreign policy to build a legacy, and Trump, who is expected to lose Congress after the midterms, will do the same, though with aggressive rather than peaceful ambitions.
- Trump's actions and rhetoric already show appeasement of Russia (calling Russia 'fine on Ukraine', Witkoff praising Putin) and a planned renewal of war with Iran.
- The administration's National Security Strategy criticizes traditional allies, praises or declines to criticize China and Russia, and says other countries' affairs matter only if they directly threaten US interests, which matches Putin's and Xi's own aims for spheres of influence.
- Russia, China and the US have shared interests in economic supply chains, technology, fossil fuels and space, which give them reasons to cooperate at the expense of Europe and others.
- A summit of the three would withdraw the US security guarantee from Europe and east Asia, endangering Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Australia, legitimize Putin and Xi, and become the defining image of the collapse of the rules-based order.
- Even if a future US president reverses course or the arrangement does not become permanent, Trump arrives weak while Putin and Xi arrive long-term and confident, so the US and its allies still lose ground.
Assumptions
- Trump will attend the summit and pursue the spheres-of-influence approach rather than being constrained by advisers, allies or domestic opposition.
- The 2025 National Security Strategy accurately reflects Trump's actual intentions and will drive policy.
- A single summit can meaningfully shift the global order or normalize a new arrangement even without formal agreements.
- Putin and Xi would exploit the US's weakened position rather than negotiate in ways that benefit the US.
- US security guarantees are the main thing deterring Russian and Chinese aggression, so their withdrawal would cause serious harm.
- Great-power cooperation among the three is harmful to others rather than a potentially stabilizing arrangement.