Trump's Iran War Follows the Same Pattern as Bush's Iraq War
Source: Corey Robin. "The Iraq War Presaged Donald Trump’s War on Iran." April 8, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
Robin argues that Trump's war with Iran happened for the same reasons as Bush's Iraq War - both presidents abandoned their anti-war campaign promises after being convinced by small groups of hawks, despite opposition from military and intelligence experts. This shows that America's war-making follows predictable patterns regardless of which party is in power.
Conclusion
The decision-making process that led to Trump's war on Iran follows the same structural pattern as Bush's Iraq War, revealing fundamental continuities in how America goes to war despite apparent differences in administrations
Premises
- Both Bush and Trump came to power denouncing internationalist policies and promising not to act as the world's policeman
- In both cases, a small group of hawks (neocons for Bush, Israelis for Trump) convinced the president to go to war using contradictory arguments about the enemy being both dangerously powerful and easily defeated
- Top US intelligence and military officials opposed both wars, citing lack of evidence and concerns about post-war planning
- Both presidents ignored expert advice and took the country to war against regimes that had been thorns in America's side for decades
- In both cases, Republicans expressed confusion about how their non-interventionist president ended up starting an unnecessary war
Assumptions
- The structural factors that drive American war-making are more important than individual personalities or party differences
- Presidential campaign rhetoric about foreign policy restraint is often abandoned once in office
- Small groups of influential hawks can successfully manipulate presidents into war despite institutional opposition
- The distinction between 'radical right' and 'moderate establishment right' Republicans is meaningless when it comes to war decisions