Trump's Iran War Backfired, Making Iran More Influential and Undermining US Global Standing
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/fawaz-gerges. "Trump’s war has backfired spectacularly: Iran is now more influential than ever | Fawaz Gerges | The Guardian." April 23, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Trump thought he could force Iran to change its government or give in to American demands by going to war, but it completely backfired. Instead of making Iran weaker, the war made Iran stronger and more willing to use its control over important shipping routes to hurt the global economy, while making America's allies trust the US less.
Conclusion
Trump's decision to go to war against Iran was a grave strategic miscalculation that has backfired spectacularly, making Iran more influential and powerful rather than achieving regime change or forcing Iranian submission
Premises
- The war failed to achieve its core objectives of regime change in Tehran or forcing Iran to submit to American demands
- Iran demonstrated that its control over the Strait of Hormuz is a more potent deterrent than its nuclear program, capable of inflicting global economic pain
- Iran can also threaten the Bab al-Mandab strait through Houthi allies, creating potential for double economic shock to global trade
- The war has shifted Iran's strategic doctrine from 'strategic patience' to a more assertive multi-front approach, with the IRGC consolidating power
- Rather than weakening the regime domestically, the war created a 'rally around the flag' effect that temporarily strengthened the government
- US Gulf allies are now hedging against American unreliability by building alternative security arrangements with other regional powers
- The war represents imperial hubris and miscalculation, with Trump failing to consider worst-case scenarios like closure of Hormuz strait
Assumptions
- Military force alone cannot achieve sustainable regime change in Iran
- Economic leverage through strait control is more effective than nuclear deterrence
- External military attacks tend to unite populations behind their governments regardless of domestic grievances
- Regional allies will seek alternative security arrangements when they perceive the US as unreliable
- Strategic patience and restraint are less effective than assertive power projection in the current geopolitical environment