Trump's Immigration Success Explains His Low Approval Ratings Through Political Paradox of Success Breeding Complacency
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "Trump Victim of Own Success on Immigration | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." September 4, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author argues that Trump did such a good job stopping illegal immigration that people simply forgot it was ever a crisis, and now don't give him credit for fixing it. This is like a broader pattern in politics where fixing a problem makes people complacent and forget about it, while failing to fix problems (or even making them worse) somehow generates more political energy and support.
Conclusion
Trump's low approval ratings, particularly on immigration, result paradoxically from his success in solving the illegal immigration crisis rather than from failure, because political success breeds voter complacency while failure galvanizes supporters.
Premises
- Trump's administration has dramatically reduced illegal immigration, evidenced by record-high arrests (50,925 in August), 2.3 million fewer illegal immigrants than when he took office, and the first shrinkage of the foreign-born population in six decades
- Despite this success, Trump's approval rating on immigration is underwater (41% approve, 54% disapprove) even though immigration was voters' top concern as recently as 2024
- This pattern mirrors other political precedents where success didn't translate to political reward: Roe v. Wade being overturned energized the left rather than satisfying the right, and dropping crime rates coincided with election of soft-on-crime politicians
- In contrast, failing programs like higher education subsidies continue to receive political support and funding despite (or because of) their failure to control costs
- The visible crisis (migrant caravans at the border) has disappeared, removing the visceral urgency that once drove public concern, allowing voters to forget the problem existed
Assumptions
- Voter approval ratings are primarily driven by perceived ongoing threats/crises rather than retrospective credit for solved problems
- The immigration statistics cited accurately reflect the causal impact of Trump administration policies rather than other factors (economic conditions, international trends, etc.)
- Political reward systems are inherently 'perverse' compared to business incentive structures
- The other issues hurting Trump's popularity (Iran, Canada) are separate and don't significantly overlap with or explain the immigration approval paradox
- Public memory and political salience naturally fade once a crisis is resolved, regardless of who resolved it