Trump's Enforcement Policies Caused Record Crime Declines That the Media Ignore, and Democratic Proposals Would Reverse Them
Source: John R. Lott Jr.. "The Media Won't Tell You Violent Crime Is Plunging Under Trump." November 2, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author says crime fell sharply in 2025 and that the cause is Trump's tougher policing, prosecution, and immigration enforcement. He argues the big news outlets are hiding this, and that Democrats want to undo these policies, which would bring crime back up and hurt poor and minority communities most.
Conclusion
Record drops in violent and property crime in 2025 are the result of Trump administration policies (more arrests, prosecutions, federalized policing, border sealing and deportations), the mainstream media are wrongly ignoring this, and Democratic proposals to reduce incarceration and enforcement would put these gains at risk.
Premises
- BJS data show felony violent crime fell 25% in 2025 (robbery -27%, aggravated assault -31%, property crime -19%), the largest one-year declines in 53 years apart from rape, and the murder rate hit a record low, with further declines in preliminary 2026 data.
- Under Biden, felony violent crime rose a record 59% and property crime 8% between 2021 and 2024, a sharp contrast with the decline under Trump.
- Trump-era enforcement sharply increased: FBI arrests rose 184%, U.S. attorneys stepped up prosecutions, D.C. charging rates rose from about 33% to 96%, and law enforcement was federalized in D.C. and Memphis.
- Crime rose as illegal immigration surged and is falling as the border is sealed and illegal immigrants are deported, about 70% of whom had criminal convictions or charges; illegal immigrants are also overrepresented in New York prisons.
- Most major outlets (AP, Reuters, CNN, NBC, ABC, NYT, WaPo) did not cover the BJS announcement even though voters rank crime as a top issue.
- Many Democrats advocate abolishing prisons, halving prison populations, defunding police or ICE, and reversing deportations, and the poor and minorities suffer most from crime.
Assumptions
- The timing correlation between Trump policies and the crime decline reflects causation rather than long-term trends, post-pandemic normalization, or other factors.
- Lack of coverage reflects bias or a failure of newsworthiness judgment rather than other editorial reasons.
- Statements by some Democratic candidates and legislators represent the party's overall policy direction and would be enacted if Democrats won.
- Higher arrests, prosecutions, and incarceration drive crime down, and reducing them would raise crime.
- Illegal immigrants are disproportionately responsible for crime, so deportation meaningfully reduces overall crime.
- The BJS and FBI data are accurate, comparable year to year, and not distorted by reporting changes.