Trump's Administration Failed to Prepare for Predictable Iranian Economic Warfare Tactics
Source: John Cassidy. "Trump’s Inexcusable Unpreparedness for the Iranian Oil Crisis | The New Yorker." March 13, 2026. www.newyorker.com
The Gist
Trump started a war with Iran without preparing for the obvious economic consequences, even though Iran used the exact same oil-disruption tactics against him just a few years ago. This lack of basic planning is causing gas prices to spike and hurting the economy.
Conclusion
The Trump Administration's lack of preparation for Iran's economic warfare tactics during the current oil crisis is inexcusable given that Iran used identical strategies during Trump's first term
Premises
- During Trump's first term (2018-2019), Iran demonstrated its willingness and ability to disrupt global oil markets by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf oil infrastructure when faced with U.S. sanctions
- Academic experts at Columbia University specifically warned about scenarios where Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz and cause oil prices to spike to $110-170 per barrel
- The current Iranian response to U.S.-Israeli military action follows the exact same playbook as 2019, including closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking oil infrastructure
- Oil prices have jumped to over $100 per barrel and U.S. gas prices have risen 20% since the conflict began, matching the predicted economic consequences
- Trump appears surprised by Iran's actions and is 'flailing around' for solutions, suggesting no contingency planning was done despite the clear precedent
Assumptions
- Government administrations should learn from and prepare for tactics used by adversaries in previous conflicts
- Economic consequences of military actions should be anticipated and planned for before launching operations
- Iran's strategic capabilities and willingness to use economic warfare remained consistent between Trump's first and second terms
- The current oil crisis could have been mitigated with proper preparation