Trumpism's Midterm Defeat Is Not the End of the Threat: Because It Happened Once, It Can Happen Again
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jonathanfreedland. "After the midterms, the global right is reeling. But the danger of Trumpism will never be gone | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian." November 6, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Trump's party just took a huge beating in the midterms, and that's worth celebrating. But the fact that a Trump presidency happened at all means something similar could happen again, and Trump himself is still in office with real power for two more years. So opponents and US allies shouldn't relax or assume things will simply go back to normal.
Conclusion
Despite the Republicans' crushing midterm defeat, the danger of Trumpism will never be gone, so opponents of nationalist populism, and the US's allies in particular, should not relax or assume normal service will resume.
Premises
- If Trump and Trumpism were possible once, then another Trump-like figure or movement is possible again.
- Trump won a second term less than four years after the January 6 insurrection and the havoc of his first term, so it is hard to claim that nationalist populist failure is inevitable.
- It is unclear whether Trump's failure reflects a general weakness of nationalist populism or avoidable personal errors, such as attacking Iran, which broke his pledge to end wars and drove up inflation.
- Even a future pro-internationalist US government cannot make America a reliable ally again, because US security guarantees now depend on election results, so allies must plan for their own defence.
- Trump remains president until January 2029, retains substantial power over foreign policy, and has motives (legacy, craving attention) that may make a weakened Trump unpredictable or dangerous, as shown by decisions on Iran and aid to Israel.
Assumptions
- The conditions that enabled Trump's rise (economic grievance, distrust of institutions) have not been resolved and could recur.
- A single election result, however decisive, does not show a lasting change in the political landscape.
- That something happened once is meaningful evidence that it can recur (possibility implies a continuing risk).
- Allies' trust in US commitments is damaged by the demonstrated possibility of reversal, not only by actual policy.
- A weakened president retains enough executive power, especially in foreign policy, to cause significant harm.
- Complacency after electoral victory is a real risk and would worsen outcomes.