Trumpism Is Exhausted: Polling Weakness and a Shift Away from Populist Messaging Signal MAGA's Decline
Source: Luke Savage. "Trumpism Is Running Out of Gas." November 3, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that MAGA is running out of steam. Polls look bad for Trump and Republicans, and Trump's recent rallies are about himself rather than the populist, pocketbook-focused appeals that made his movement strong. The author thinks a big midterm loss is coming and will leave Trump weak for the rest of his term.
Conclusion
Trumpism (MAGA) is running out of gas and is likely about to suffer a significant political blow, leaving Trump a deeply unpopular and fatally compromised figure for the rest of his term.
Premises
- Polls show Democrats favored to take the House and leading in all seven key Senate races (including Texas and Kansas), and Trump's approval rating is very low and steadily falling.
- Trump has never been particularly popular, and to consolidate power the Trump project needed a larger popular coalition, which it has consistently failed to build.
- In his second term, Trump has seemed indifferent to public opinion and unconcerned with selling his administration's direction to voters.
- Trumpism has historically been strongest when it was insurgent and populist: tapping anti-elite anger, promising jobs and reindustrialization, attacking the trade consensus, hinting at ending wars, and addressing cost of living, with its ugliness 'democratized' into a narrative of national renewal.
- Trump's current midterm campaigning is instead self-focused (ballrooms, cognitive tests, physique), sidelines cost-of-living concerns, shows no effort to sell the Iran war, and dismisses voters' economic pain (e.g., the gas-price and $5,000-check Mar-a-Lago remarks).
- Because Trumpism has never looked or sounded like this when it was most confident and politically robust, the current messaging indicates a project running on fumes.
Assumptions
- Trump's rhetorical style and campaign messaging are reliable indicators of the underlying health and strength of the broader MAGA movement.
- Past periods of Trumpist success were caused by populist messaging, so the absence of that messaging implies weakness.
- Current polls are accurate enough to indicate a coming Democratic win, and midterm results reflect the movement's durability.
- The CNN reporters' account of the rallies is representative of Trump's campaign messaging overall.
- A midterm defeat would meaningfully weaken Trumpism rather than merely being a normal midterm penalty for the president's party.
- Trump's apparent indifference to public opinion is a sign of weakness rather than a strategy that rests on a loyal base or on other levers of power.