Trump and Netanyahu's Plan B: Fragment Iran Through Kurdish Militias to Neutralize Regional Threat
Source: Fred Kaplan. "Iran: Trump's real plan might be coming into view.." March 6, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
The author argues that since Trump and Netanyahu can't overthrow Iran's government and control what happens next, they're trying a different approach: encouraging Kurdish fighters to start an uprising that would break Iran apart or cause a civil war. This would weaken Iran so much it couldn't threaten other countries anymore.
Conclusion
Trump and Netanyahu's strategy appears to be breaking Iran into pieces or sparking internal civil war through Kurdish militias, since they cannot achieve regime change or control what comes after
Premises
- Multiple news reports show Trump and Netanyahu are encouraging Kurdish militias to join the fight against Tehran's regime
- The CIA has been supplying Kurdish militias with small arms and U.S./Israeli bombs have targeted Revolutionary Guard outposts to ease Kurdish passage
- Kurds are highly effective fighters who have been America's most skilled allies in previous Middle East conflicts
- Kurds comprise only 10% of Iran's population and are geographically isolated, making it unlikely they could hold power even if they captured Tehran
- This strategy is already widening the conflict, as Iran has fired missiles at Kurdish headquarters in Iraq and Turkey fears Kurdish uprising within its borders
- Trump's own statements reveal he sees himself as the one who will control Iran's post-war leadership, not the Kurds or other local forces
Assumptions
- Trump and Netanyahu have coherent strategic planning rather than acting impulsively
- Kurdish militias will respond to encouragement despite past betrayals by the U.S.
- Fragmenting Iran would effectively neutralize its regional threat
- The current Iranian regime is sufficiently weakened to be vulnerable to internal uprising
- Regional chaos and civil war would serve U.S. and Israeli interests better than a stable but hostile Iran