Transgender individuals commit mass shootings at rates far exceeding their population share
Source: John R. Lott Jr.. "Rate Of Transgender Violence Is Much Worse Than Media Admits." February 26, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author argues that transgender people commit mass shootings much more often than their small percentage of the population would suggest. He claims the media hides this by using bad statistics and mixing different types of shootings together.
Conclusion
Transgender-identifying individuals commit mass public shootings and active shootings at rates far above their share of the population, contrary to media claims that such attacks are extremely rare
Premises
- From 2018-2025, transgender individuals made up 5% of mass public shootings despite being only 0.73-1% of the population
- In 2024, transgender individuals accounted for active shooter attacks at rates 12 times larger than their population share
- Media outlets make statistical errors by not adjusting for population share when reporting transgender involvement in shootings
- Media outlets use overly broad definitions that include gang violence and robberies, diluting the apparent rate of transgender mass public shootings
- Mass public shooters are overwhelmingly suicidal, and transgender individuals attempt suicide at rates 16 times higher than the general population
- Recent cases like Nashville Covenant School, Club Q, and attempted attack on Justice Kavanaugh demonstrate the pattern
Assumptions
- Population estimates for transgender individuals (0.73-1%) are accurate
- The FBI's active shooting classification system provides the most appropriate comparison framework
- Mass public shootings should be analyzed separately from other types of gun violence
- Higher suicide rates among transgender individuals correlate with higher rates of mass shooting perpetration
- Media coverage systematically underreports or misrepresents these statistics