The US-Israel war on Iran is fundamentally destabilizing Gulf states' carefully constructed stability model
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nesrinemalik. "The war on Iran is already upending the Middle East. Look to the Gulf states to see how | Nesrine Malik | The Guardian." March 9, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that the war between the US/Israel and Iran is destroying the Gulf countries' business model of staying neutral to attract money and investment. These countries built their modern success on avoiding conflicts, but now they're being dragged into a war that threatens their economy and stability for years to come.
Conclusion
The current US-Israeli military campaign against Iran is causing profound and lasting damage to Gulf states' political and economic foundations, forcing a fundamental reordering of Middle Eastern power dynamics
Premises
- Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) have built their modern influence on a model requiring geopolitical stability - attracting international investment, tourism, and business through careful neutrality
- These countries are at critical political transition points, pursuing ambitious but conflicting regional agendas while managing internal reforms and inter-Gulf rivalries
- The war has already disrupted their core economic activities (closing airspaces, halting gas production, threatening oil production) and shattered the peace their model depends on
- The conflict reveals how Gulf states have become recruited to US-Israeli regional dominance projects, undermining their projected sovereignty and control
- The duration and intensity of the conflict threatens basic infrastructure (including water supply from desalination plants) that these countries depend on
- The war will trigger unintended consequences including intensified African conflicts, potential Gulf state divisions over supporting US-Israeli ambitions, and spillover from Iranian instability
Assumptions
- Gulf states' wealth and monarchical rule do not make them immune to geopolitical disruption
- Economic stability and international investment require sustained peace and predictability
- The current conflict represents a fundamental shift rather than a temporary disruption
- Gulf states have limited agency when major powers pursue regional dominance
- Western powers view Middle Eastern populations and leaders as expendable in pursuit of strategic goals