The US-Iran ceasefire creates a dangerous stalemate where both sides falsely believe they're winning
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/sanam-vakil. "Iran and the US both think they are winning the war. The truth is they are both losing | Sanam Vakil | The Guardian." June 4, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that while the US and Iran each think they're winning their conflict, both are actually losing badly. The ceasefire isn't real peace - it's just buying time while both countries suffer serious costs and neither gets what they really need.
Conclusion
Both the US and Iran are losing from the current ceasefire arrangement, despite each side believing they are winning, and this false perception creates a dangerous stalemate that risks future escalation
Premises
- The ceasefire has prevented all-out war but has not created genuine peace, allowing both sides to avoid meaningful compromise
- Four major obstacles prevent progress: lack of trust, absence of direct communication, mismatched negotiation needs, and toxic domestic politics on both sides
- Iran falsely believes it's winning because it survived combined US-Israeli pressure and gained leverage through closing the Strait of Hormuz
- The US falsely believes it's winning because it demonstrated military strength and degraded Iran's proxies and deterrence
- Iran is actually losing due to economic devastation (77% inflation, currency collapse) and internal unrest from brutal crackdowns
- The US is actually losing due to political, economic and strategic costs including nervous energy markets and undermined credibility with Gulf partners
- Middle East stalemates rarely remain frozen and tend toward escalation in cycles
Assumptions
- Both sides' perceptions of victory are based on incomplete or misleading assessments of their strategic position
- Economic pressure and domestic unrest will eventually force political consequences for leaders
- Stalemates in the Middle East have historical patterns of escalation
- Direct communication and compromise are necessary for sustainable peace
- Current leadership on both sides has the capacity for bold decision-making if properly motivated