The US fuel blockade of Cuba is a coercive siege causing mass suffering, and its failure to break Cuba may make an invasion more, not less, likely
Source: Kurt Hackbarth. "The US Is Starving Cuba. Will It Invade Too?." October 29, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that the US is deliberately starving Cuba with an illegal fuel blockade and sanctions, causing real harm to children and the sick. Cubans haven't cracked, and the author worries that this failure, plus election politics and trouble in Iran, could push Washington toward invading.
Conclusion
The US blockade and sanctions regime is an illegal, deliberately engineered siege that is devastating Cuba's population without achieving regime collapse, and this failure, combined with US political and geopolitical pressures, may make Washington more dangerous and an invasion a real possibility.
Premises
- After the January kidnapping of Maduro, US officials repeatedly predicted Cuba would fall next, but instead of an invasion the US imposed a total fuel blockade and a sweeping sanctions regime on Cuba.
- The blockade and sanctions violate international law (UN Charter Article 2(4), Resolution 3314, and high-seas navigation rules) and are designed to scare off all commercial activity, leading hotels, airlines, shippers, card networks, and banks to withdraw.
- The measures have caused severe humanitarian harm, including a doubling of infant mortality to 9.9 per 1,000, a 20-point drop in childhood cancer survival, and 96,000 people awaiting surgery.
- Despite this suffering, Cubans have endured and adapted through solar expansion, electric vehicles, and efforts at energy sovereignty, and US attempts to find a 'perfect traitor' or spark an uprising have failed.
- Invasion talk is entangled with US electoral politics, as shown by the timing of the CBS memo story, Trump's UN speech, and Florida's arrest warrant for Raúl Castro before the midterms.
- Some regional observers believe that a US debacle in Iran could make an attack on Cuba more likely, because the empire would need a smaller, easier victory.
Assumptions
- The humanitarian harm in Cuba is caused primarily by the US blockade and sanctions rather than by Cuban domestic policy.
- The Cuban government's account, including that of Ambassador Tablada de la Torre, is accurate and reliable.
- US officials' rhetoric and social media posts reflect real intentions and not just domestic political signaling.
- Frustrated coercive strategies tend to escalate toward military options.
- Historical patterns of US behavior, such as the Gaza analogy and the treatment of Venezuela, are predictive of Cuba policy.
- The blockade is intended to bring about regime change and not merely to pressure for policy concessions.