The UK should keep engaging closely with a weakened Trump, not distance itself, because he will turn to foreign policy and react badly to perceived disrespect
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/kim-darroch. "I know the dangers a wounded Trump presents – this is how the UK should deal with him now | Kim Darroch | The Guardian." November 5, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Trump has just taken a huge beating in the midterms, and he'll probably try to prove he still matters by making big moves abroad. Britain should keep talking to him closely and not look like it's pulling away or courting his likely replacements, because he's very sensitive to disrespect and still controls foreign policy until 2029.
Conclusion
After the Democrats' sweeping midterm victory, the UK should carry on largely as before in handling Trump, with one qualification: it should engage him even more intensively on key issues, and avoid any appearance of distancing itself from him or cultivating his possible successors.
Premises
- The Democrats' midterm victory was a comprehensive rejection of Trump's policies. They won the House, the Senate and most governorships, and flipped traditionally Republican territory.
- Trump took the 2018 midterm defeat badly, feeling humiliated and looking for people to blame, and this defeat is far worse, so he is likely to react badly.
- Losing Congress will constrain Trump on domestic policy, but he will keep a relatively free hand on foreign policy, where he will want to make his mark (Iran, Ukraine, tariffs, a Putin deal, China, Cuba).
- Trump's foreign policy moves pose substantial risks to UK interests (energy prices, Ukraine, new tariffs on Europe), and British and European interests will not figure in his calculations.
- Trump is acutely sensitive to signs of disrespect, and a wounded Trump will fight to preserve his authority rather than accept decline quietly.
- Trump will remain president and call the shots until January 2029, so he is the only one who can be influenced on these decisions.
Assumptions
- Intensive engagement and visible loyalty can actually influence Trump's decisions and steer him away from harming UK interests.
- Trump's perceived slights would lead to concrete retaliation against the UK, such as tariffs or reduced cooperation.
- The costs of being seen as sycophantic or of closeness to a repudiated president are smaller than the costs of antagonizing him.
- Trump's behavior in 2018 and his general temperament are a reliable guide to how he will behave after this defeat.
- Hedging by quietly cultivating Democrats or Republican successors cannot be done discreetly enough to avoid Trump noticing.
- UK interests are best served by short-term influence over Trump rather than by positioning for the post-Trump era.