The Real Danger of Trump's Peltola Threats Is Pressure on Alaska Election Certification, Not the Legal Threats Themselves
Source: Dahlia Lithwick. "2026 election news: The real danger of Donald Trump’s Mary Peltola threats.." October 31, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
Trump's loud threats against Mary Peltola and the lawsuit over the two Dan Sullivans will almost certainly fail in court. The real worry is that they set up a fight over certifying Alaska's slow-counted, possibly decisive Senate race, with pressure on Republican officials there. The law says certification is mandatory, so the race will probably be certified, but the process could still be messy.
Conclusion
The Trump administration's threats and lawsuit over Mary Peltola and the 'two Dan Sullivans' are unlikely to succeed legally, so the real danger is that they lay groundwork for disinformation and pressure on Alaska officials not to certify a close Senate race. Because certification is mandatory under settled law, the election would probably still be certified, but the process carries real uncertainty.
Premises
- The Alaska lawsuit is legally frivolous and is a political document meant to lay groundwork for challenging the election afterward, not to win in court.
- The ballot-name dispute was already resolved under state law by the Alaska Supreme Court, which overruled officials who tried to remove the second Dan Sullivan. Trump also cannot disqualify candidates through Truth Social posts.
- Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation does not happen until 14 days after the election, creating a long window for disinformation, especially if the Alaska seat decides control of the Senate.
- Courts have clearly established since 2020 that certification is ministerial and mandatory, so the Justice Department cannot itself block certification and would have to persuade officials or courts to do so.
- Alaska is more vulnerable than California because Republican state officials such as the governor and lieutenant governor can be pressured, whereas the administration has no leverage over California's process.
- The decentralized structure of midterms and the likelihood of a wide Democratic margin in the House make large-scale overturning of results procedurally difficult.
Assumptions
- Threats and lawsuits that are legally weak can still be strategically useful for building a narrative of illegitimacy.
- Alaska officials may be susceptible to political pressure even when the law is clear.
- The Alaska Senate race could be close enough to determine Senate control.
- Courts will continue to follow the settled post-2020 precedent on certification.
- Polling and campaign spending patterns reliably indicate a wide Democratic House margin.