The Kingpin Strategy Fails: Killing Drug Lords Increases Violence Without Reducing Drug Trade
Source: Benjamin Fogel. "Another Kingpin Falls, Nothing Changes." February 23, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that killing drug cartel leaders like El Mencho doesn't work and actually makes things worse. Instead of reducing violence and drug trafficking, it creates power vacuums that lead to more violence as different groups fight for control. This strategy has been failing for fifty years but continues because it serves political purposes.
Conclusion
The killing of El Mencho and the broader 'kingpin strategy' of targeting drug cartel leaders will not reduce violence, stop drug trafficking, or improve security in Mexico
Premises
- Nearly fifty years of targeting drug cartel leaders has failed to reduce violence or drug trafficking, as evidenced by the continued flow of drugs despite numerous high-profile captures and killings
- Removing major cartel leaders destabilizes criminal organizations and typically leads to increased violence as factions fight for control, as seen with the 400% spike in homicides after El Mayo's capture
- The fragmentation caused by the kingpin strategy has transformed Mexico from being dominated by a few major organizations to having hundreds of small criminal splinter groups spread across the country
- Drug cartels are not actually vertically organized single entities but rather networks of intermarried families and horizontally organized structures, making the 'cartel' concept a convenient fiction for US foreign policy
- The immediate violent reaction to El Mencho's death, including narco blockades across fifteen states and multiple civilian casualties, demonstrates that killing leaders doesn't weaken organizations but provokes retaliation
- Historical precedent shows that targeting kingpins consistently fails - Colombia continues to export more cocaine than ever despite eliminating leaders like Pablo Escobar, and Mexico's violence has only increased
Assumptions
- Drug trafficking organizations operate as business networks rather than hierarchical military structures
- Violence is primarily a negotiation tool with the state rather than an attempt to destroy it
- US foreign policy benefits from maintaining the fiction of centralized 'cartels' as enemies
- Alternative approaches to drug policy would be more effective than the current enforcement strategy
- The root causes of drug trafficking are economic and structural rather than dependent on individual leaders