The Gulf's New Era of Irreversible Instability: Old Security Alliances No Longer Protect Gulf States
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nesrinemalik. "The Gulf has entered a new era of instability. If its leaders think they can rely on old alliances, they are wrong | Nesrine Malik | The Guardian." October 12, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that a string of attacks on Gulf countries, culminating in a deadly Houthi missile strike on Riyadh, shows the region has entered a lasting period of instability. The old safety nets, namely US protection and careful dealings with Iran, no longer work, and Gulf leaders are stuck with a hard, drawn-out war in Yemen and no reliable allies.
Conclusion
The Gulf has entered a new, irreversible era of instability in which Gulf leaders can no longer rely on old alliances (especially the US security umbrella and managed relations with Iran) to protect their security, sovereignty and economic model, and the Houthi attack on Riyadh exemplifies this new reality.
Premises
- The longstanding Gulf norm of the 'sanctity' of Gulf lives and sovereignty, secured by managing relations with Iran and by alliances with the US, has been broken: Iran struck a US base in Qatar, Israel struck Doha, and Iran then attacked Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman during the 2026 war.
- The attacks on Gulf infrastructure and the suspension of normal life (school closures, airport and airspace closures) threaten the Gulf states' economic model, which depends on integration into the cosmopolitan international community through tourism, business, sport and entertainment.
- The 2026 war on Iran reactivated dormant hostilities, notably in Yemen, where the Hormuz closure shifted traffic toward the Bab al-Mandab strait and gave the Houthis strategic opportunities and incentives to seize territory and confront Saudi Arabia.
- The Houthis are not mere Iranian proxies; they have their own domestic ambitions and deep animosity toward the House of Saud, so their aggression will not end with a settlement between Iran and the West.
- The US has shown the limits of its security umbrella: Trump treated Gulf allies' security as secondary to his Iran 'excursion', and the administration refused military assistance to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis after assurances that the Houthis would attack only Saudi vessels, not US ships.
- Saudi Arabia now faces a long, intractable war against a resourceful, highly motivated adversary that can endure more pain than Riyadh can without reorienting entirely toward war, and the wider regional conflicts (Iran, Gaza, Lebanon) remain unresolved.
Assumptions
- The erosion of norms and the reactivated conflicts are structural and self-reinforcing, not temporary shocks that could be reversed through diplomacy.
- Gulf states' security and prosperity depend on both great-power guarantees and stable regional relations, so the failure of both leaves them exposed.
- The US's refusal to help Saudi Arabia against the Houthis reflects a durable shift in US priorities rather than a one-off policy decision.
- The 2015 Saudi campaign in Yemen is a reliable predictor of how the new conflict will unfold.
- Gulf leaders are currently underestimating or failing to acknowledge the extent of the change.
- Relatively low casualty numbers do not undermine the claim of a fundamental regional shift, because the change lies in broken norms and expectations rather than in body counts.