The Democratic Midterm Wave Was a Rejection of Neocon War Policy, Not a Mandate for a Neocon-Led 'Post-Trump' GOP
Source: Eddie Scarry. "The 'Blue Tsunami' Isn't What Neocons Want It To Be." November 4, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author argues that Democrats won the midterms because voters were angry about a costly, unnecessary war in Iran and rising gas prices, not because they want the Republican Party to go back to its old establishment ways. He says neocons, who he claims love the war, are wrongly claiming the result as a victory for their vision of a 'post-Trump' GOP, when voters were actually rejecting their kind of foreign policy.
Conclusion
The Democratic midterm sweep was a voter rejection of neoconservatism and unnecessary foreign wars, not a repudiation of Trump-style politics that would justify a neocon-led 'post-Trump' GOP rebuild.
Premises
- The election was driven essentially by one issue: an unpopular, unnecessary war in Iran and its heavy costs to Americans, including gas prices up nearly 40 percent.
- The war negated nearly all of Trump's positive accomplishments, while Republicans still narrowly lead Democrats on trust over immigration (43 to 41 percent), which shows that voters were not rejecting Trump's core agenda.
- Trump said the war was over a month after it began, yet it has continued for more than eight months, and ordinary Americans, including his own voters who expected no new intractable war, bear its costs.
- Neocons are the main constituency that supports the war, and they are the same group voters said they had enough of in 2016.
- Neocon commentators like Peggy Noonan have no new ideas or perspective and have resisted Trump and his supporters since 2016. Their real aim is to get rid of Trump and his supporters.
- Therefore, voters were rejecting neoconism and its foreign wars, and neocons are wrong to read the results as a rebirth of a 'post-Trump' GOP.
Assumptions
- The war is the dominant or sole cause of the Democratic victory, and other factors (economy, Trump's personal conduct, other policies) mattered little.
- Trump's Iran war is properly characterized as a neocon project, and Trump himself is not responsible for the neocon label attaching to it.
- A voter's dissatisfaction with the war equates to a rejection of neoconservatism as an ideology.
- The immigration trust gap shows continued voter support for Trump's agenda in general.
- Neocons like Noonan are a homogeneous group who share the same motives and opposition to Trump.
- Voters chose Democrats as an 'alternative to the status quo' rather than endorsing Democratic policies.