Texas GOP Losses Stem From the Iran War, Affordability, and Establishment Betrayal, Not Candidate Quality
Source: Jordan Boyd. "Blue Tsunami Proves Texas’ Problem Was Never Candidate Quality." November 4, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author says Republicans didn't lose Texas because their candidates were bad. Paxton and French got nearly the same share of the vote as the popular governor, and Republican voters picked Paxton over Cornyn by a huge margin. In the author's view, the real causes were the Iran War and higher prices, Senate Republicans who didn't deliver, and establishment figures like Cornyn who fought their own party's nominees.
Conclusion
The Republican defeat in Texas was not primarily caused by poor candidate quality (e.g., Ken Paxton or Bo French); it was driven by the Iran War and its affordability fallout, GOP inaction in the Senate, and establishment Republicans' hostility toward the party's base.
Premises
- Paxton's 43% of the vote was only about 2.7 points below incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott's 45.7%, and Bo French's roughly 45-46% matched or exceeded Abbott's share, so the supposedly flawed candidates did not underperform a mainstream Republican by much.
- Democrats turned out in presidential-level numbers while a notable share of Republicans, including evangelical Christians, stayed home, and this followed the Iran War and the affordability problems it caused (e.g., gas prices tracking Trump's approval).
- Republican senators wasted a GOP trifecta by failing to pass key legislation such as the SAVE America Act and were reluctant to fund Paxton's race, giving GOP voters little reason to turn out.
- Paxton beat Cornyn 63.8% to 36.2% in the primary runoff, which shows Texas Republican voters did not view him as an unfit candidate.
- Cornyn and the Bush family spent the general election season attacking the party's chosen nominees, and Cornyn even declined to vote for French, which undermined GOP unity.
- There is no evidence Cornyn would have done better than Paxton in the general election.
Assumptions
- A candidate's vote share relative to the incumbent governor is a valid measure of that candidate's personal drag on the ticket.
- Abbott's performance is a fair baseline for how a generic Republican would have done in this environment.
- Primary voters' preferences are a good indicator of general-election viability and of candidate quality.
- Republican non-voting was caused by the Iran War, affordability, and GOP inaction rather than by disaffection with the candidates.
- Correlation between gas prices and Trump approval reflects a causal effect on turnout and vote choice.
- The causes the author names (war, inaction, establishment sabotage) can be separated from candidate quality as explanations.
- Statewide vote shares in a 'blue tsunami' reflect mainly national and environmental factors.