Susan Collins' personal familiarity and independence make her likely to survive Maine's Senate race despite polls favoring Troy Jackson
Source: "Susan Collins holds strong in Maine as Joe Manchin campaigns for her | Fox News." October 23, 2026. www.foxnews.com
The Gist
The author argues that even though polls show Democrat Troy Jackson slightly ahead, Susan Collins will probably win in Maine. In his conversations, voters know her personally, like what she has done for their towns, see her as independent of Trump, and don't seem excited about Jackson.
Conclusion
Despite polls giving Democrat Troy Jackson a slight lead, Susan Collins is likely to hold her Maine Senate seat because of her deep personal connection with voters, her record of delivering for the state, her perceived independence from Trump, and Jackson's inability to generate enthusiasm.
Premises
- Maine is a small state and Collins has served three decades, so a large share of Mainers have met her personally and call her 'Susan', and many under 40 cannot remember a time without her as senator.
- Voters credit Collins, as Appropriations Committee chair, with bringing federal money to Maine (e.g., new fire stations in small towns).
- Across party lines, including some Democrats, the Mainers the author interviewed expressed affection for Collins and doubt that she will lose ('I'll believe she loses when I see it').
- Voters see Collins as independent of President Trump, so anti-Trump sentiment is unlikely to hurt her, and Trump was rarely mentioned by voters.
- Jackson has not mustered a compelling 'call to arms'; voters describe him as a 'last-ditch effort' and 'somebody had to run.'
- Collins's centrism is tolerated by Republicans, and a centrist former Democrat (Joe Manchin) is campaigning for her, signaling cross-party appeal.
Assumptions
- Informal conversations with voters in Bangor are representative of Maine's electorate as a whole.
- Personal familiarity and affection translate into votes, even among voters who disagree with her party.
- Polls may be underestimating Collins, as has arguably happened in past Maine races.
- Voters' perception of Collins's independence from Trump will hold through Election Day.
- Lack of enthusiasm for a challenger leads to lower support or turnout for that challenger.
- Manchin's endorsement meaningfully moves Democratic-leaning or independent voters.