Susan Collins lost because Maine voters saw through her sham independent persona, exposed by her Kavanaugh vote and pro-Trump record
Source: Jill Filipovic. "Susan Collins’ loss: Maine finally saw the “independent” for what she was.." November 4, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
The author says Susan Collins lost because Maine voters finally stopped believing she was an independent who stood up to her party. Her vote for Kavanaugh, who later helped overturn Roe, and her record of mostly backing Trump showed that her image didn't match her actions. Even against a weak Democratic opponent, voters turned her out.
Conclusion
Susan Collins lost her 2026 Maine Senate race primarily because voters finally recognized that her self-styled image as a principled independent moderate was a sham, a recognition rooted most notably in her 2018 Kavanaugh vote and her record of aligning with Trump and the GOP.
Premises
- Collins built her political brand on being a bold, pro-choice independent who put Maine ahead of the Republican Party.
- In 2018 Collins voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh despite sexual assault allegations and his evasive answers on Roe v. Wade, relying on his private assurance that Roe was 'settled law,' which was a meaningless assurance since any precedent is settled until the Court overturns it.
- Kavanaugh then voted to overturn Roe in Dobbs (2022), and Collins said she had no regrets, which discredited her pro-choice, independent image.
- Collins has cast decisive votes against her party fewer times under Trump than under Biden, Obama, and Bush, and has aligned more with the GOP on the votes that mattered most.
- Trump was deeply unpopular in Maine (net approval -32), and most Mainers rejected Collins's story of independence and objected to her being too supportive of him.
- Collins lost despite facing a weak, uncharismatic Democratic replacement candidate (Troy Jackson) after a messy Democratic primary, so her defeat cannot be explained by the strength of her opponent, and voters were rejecting her specifically.
Assumptions
- Voters' rejection of Collins was driven by her record and persona rather than by general anti-Republican or anti-Trump sentiment alone.
- The Kavanaugh vote and its consequences remained salient enough to Maine voters to influence their 2026 choice.
- Collins's occasional breaks with her party were insufficient to sustain her independent image.
- A candidate's weak qualities imply voters were not choosing him on his merits, so the result reflects rejection of Collins.
- Collins's private assurances from Kavanaugh were obviously insufficient, and a reasonable senator should have recognized this.
- Collins's loss can be explained by a coherent voter narrative, despite the article providing no direct voter or exit-poll data.