State Midterm Races Will Determine 2028 Election Rules, and Democratic Trifectas Threaten Election Integrity
Source: Shawn Fleetwood. "State Races Will Decide Election Rules For 2028 And Beyond." October 28, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author argues that this November's state elections matter far beyond the next few years, because the winners will write the rules for the 2028 presidential race. He says Republican-run states are tightening election security while Democratic-run states are loosening it. So if Democrats win full control in swing states like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he warns, elections there will become less trustworthy.
Conclusion
The outcome of this November's state legislative and gubernatorial races, especially in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, will determine the rules and integrity of the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Democratic trifectas in these states would weaken election integrity, so voters concerned about fair elections should oppose them.
Premises
- State governors and legislatures set election rules, including voter ID, voter roll maintenance, and mail-in voting, and they control redistricting and decisions on the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
- Republican trifectas in 2026 passed laws on proof of citizenship, voter roll cleaning, stronger voter ID, and bans on ranked-choice voting, which the author frames as 'fundamentals of secure elections'.
- Democratic trifectas in 2026 passed laws expanding mail-in voting, automatic voter registration, limits on the use of citizenship data, and new curbs on voter list maintenance, which the author characterizes as a coordinated agenda to tilt the playing field.
- Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have gubernatorial and legislative elections this November and are key battlegrounds for the 2028 presidential election.
- If Democrats win trifectas in these states, they would implement California- and Virginia-style voting 'reforms' for several election cycles and could push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact past the 270 electoral vote threshold (it is 48 votes short) before 2028.
Assumptions
- Voter ID, proof of citizenship, aggressive roll maintenance, and limits on mail-in voting and automatic registration improve election integrity rather than suppress eligible voters.
- Democratic-backed measures such as mail-in voting and automatic registration create meaningful fraud risks and reduce public trust, rather than increasing legitimate access.
- Democratic motives are partisan advantage rather than good-faith access or integrity concerns.
- Winning a trifecta translates directly into enacting these policies in these specific swing states.
- The National Popular Vote Compact would be legally and politically workable and harmful if it took effect.
- The Honest Elections Project Action report is an accurate and neutral source, despite its advocacy orientation.
- Election rule changes made by 2028 would not be reversed, blocked by courts, or limited by divided government.