SpaceX IPO is a Poor Investment Choice Compared to Lottery Tickets
Source: "Opinion | Your SpaceX Odds Are Not in Your Favor - The New York Times." June 12, 2026. www.nytimes.com
The Gist
The author argues that SpaceX's upcoming IPO is priced so high that regular investors have almost no chance of making money from it. He says you'd have better odds buying lottery tickets instead, since only Elon Musk will get rich while everyone else loses money.
Conclusion
Investing in SpaceX's IPO is such a poor bet that purchasing lottery tickets would be a better use of money
Premises
- SpaceX would need to grow revenues by 50% annually to reach $1.1 trillion by 2035 for a 10% return to shareholders
- SpaceX is currently operating at a loss and analysts expect continued spending increases
- The high IPO share price means astronomical growth is required for meaningful returns
- Only Elon Musk stands to significantly profit from the IPO, potentially becoming a trillionaire
- Most investors will be forced to own SpaceX through index funds in their 401(k)s whether they want to or not
Assumptions
- A 10% return to shareholders is the appropriate benchmark for investment success
- SpaceX's current financial trajectory will continue (operating at a loss with increasing spending)
- The IPO share price accurately reflects the company's inflated valuation
- Lottery tickets and stock investments are comparable financial decisions
- Individual investors have little control over their exposure to SpaceX through index funds