Sánchez's Progressive Foreign Policy Stance Has Made Spain Vulnerable to Coercion by Morocco, the US, and the EU Right
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/eoghan-gilmartin. "Spain’s Pedro Sánchez is a progressive outlier in Europe – and over Ceuta, he is being made to pay for it | Eoghan Gilmartin | The Guardian." August 6, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Spain's PM Sánchez, by being one of the few European leaders brave enough to stand up to Trump and the political right, has made his country a target for punishment. This piece claims that Morocco's manipulation of the Ceuta migrant crisis, Trump's political meddling in Spanish affairs, and the EU's unusual lack of support for Spain are all connected consequences of Sánchez's progressive stances.
Conclusion
Pedro Sánchez's position as a progressive outlier willing to defy Trump and challenge the European right has left Spain exposed to coordinated retaliation and coercive diplomacy, particularly evident in the EU's lack of solidarity during the Ceuta migration crisis.
Premises
- Sánchez has taken uniquely defiant stances against Trump and the Atlanticist consensus, including opposing the US war on Iran, rejecting NATO's 5% defence spending target, pushing to end the EU-Israel association agreement, and forging ties with China and the global south.
- The Ceuta crisis bears the hallmarks of Moroccan coercive diplomacy, as Morocco has previously relaxed border enforcement during diplomatic tensions with Spain to exert pressure, and border guards reportedly offered little resistance or even encouraged crossings.
- Unlike the EU's unified response to a similar 2021 incursion, EU leaders in 2026 instead blamed Spain's immigration policies, revealing a lack of solidarity and exploitation of the crisis by the European right for political point-scoring.
- The Trump administration has directly intervened in Spanish domestic politics, including supplying compromising intelligence that triggered a corruption investigation into Sánchez's ally Zapatero shortly after Sánchez's stand on Iran.
- Spain's government was caught off guard by the crisis, reflecting complacency about potential retaliation after refusing US access to airbases during the Iran war, despite prior Republican calls to back Moroccan claims over Ceuta and Melilla.
- Morocco's timing likely relates to Sánchez's rapprochement with Algeria (Morocco's rival), suggesting Morocco is using migration as leverage to punish Spanish diplomatic moves it opposes.
- Sánchez's prior concession on Western Sahara in 2021-22 failed to secure long-term stability, showing that appeasement of Morocco has not neutralized this coercive dynamic.
Assumptions
- The described patterns of border relaxation and diplomatic timing constitute intentional coercive strategy rather than coincidence or purely domestic Moroccan factors.
- The EU's differing responses to the 2021 and 2026 incursions can be attributed primarily to a rightward political shift rather than other factors (e.g., scale of crisis, fatalities, or Spain's specific policies).
- Sánchez's foreign policy positions are the primary or a major causal factor behind the coordinated pressure from Morocco, the US, and EU right, rather than these actors having independent motivations.
- Progressive foreign policy positioning inherently carries higher geopolitical risk in the current international climate dominated by a rightward shift and Trump-aligned actors.