Simultaneous far-right election wins in Europe's big four could create a Trump-style tilt and hollow out the EU
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nathalie-tocci. "Europe’s big election season is about to kick off. It could change everything | Nathalie Tocci | The Guardian." October 13, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Europe has so far been protected from sudden political swings because its countries lean in different directions. But if the far right wins power in France, Italy, Poland and Spain at around the same time, they could band together to block further EU integration and encourage each other to go further. That could leave the EU hollowed out or even falling apart.
Conclusion
If far-right or nationalist populist parties win or retain power in France, Italy, Poland and Spain in the coming round of elections, Europe could shift dramatically and abruptly, as the US did under Trump, blocking deeper EU integration and risking the hollowing out or implosion of the EU.
Premises
- Europe's economy, peace and security require decision-making at the European level, yet elections are held mainly at the national level.
- Europe's national political heterogeneity has so far prevented the sudden, radical shifts seen in the US under Trump, as shown by far-right setbacks in the Netherlands, Hungary and Sweden.
- The coming elections in France, Italy, Poland and Spain could bring far-right or nationalist populist parties to power, either confirmed (Italy), returned (Poland) or newly elected (France and Spain).
- Even without a qualified majority, far-right governments in these countries and several smaller ones would form a blocking minority that ends any ambition of deeper EU integration in finance, energy, defence and technology.
- Far-right leaders in power together would radicalise and embolden one another, reinforced by MAGA America and Silicon Valley algorithms, and would remove the moderating influence on Meloni of leaders such as Macron, Tusk and Sánchez.
- The EU would be especially vulnerable if no agreement is reached on its next seven-year budget in the coming months.
Assumptions
- Far-right and nationalist populist parties are fundamentally opposed to deeper EU integration and would act on that opposition in the Council.
- Polls and current trends accurately indicate that these parties could win in France, Spain and Poland.
- Meloni's perceived moderation is driven mainly by her peers rather than by institutional constraints or her own pragmatism.
- A blocking minority would be formed and coordinated in practice, rather than the governments splitting over national interests.
- Ideological alignment among far-right leaders would outweigh their conflicting national interests.
- Deeper EU integration is desirable and its loss would be harmful.