Shield of the Americas Can Defeat Cartels, but Brazil's Likely Non-Participation Under Lula Creates a Dangerous Loophole
Source: "Brazil will likely continue to pass on 'Shield of Americas' after Lula's victory | Fox News." October 30, 2026. www.foxnews.com
The Gist
The author argues that cartels thrive by exploiting borders and gaps between countries' legal systems. The U.S.-led Shield of the Americas fights back by labeling cartels as terrorists and sharing intelligence across countries. Because Brazil, under the re-elected Lula, is unlikely to join, the author expects organized crime there to grow.
Conclusion
The U.S.-led Shield of the Americas, with its terrorist designations and intelligence and military coordination, is a promising way to dismantle transnational cartels. Brazil's likely refusal to join under the re-elected Lula will leave a gap that all but ensures more organized criminal activity there.
Premises
- Modern cartels operate like sophisticated multinational corporations, with supply chains, global money laundering, and specialized cells, and they deliberately exploit jurisdictional borders and gaps between governments.
- Traditional law enforcement, which treats cartels as local problems, is hampered by bureaucratic obstacles in sharing evidence, securing extraditions, and tracing funds across countries.
- Designating eight major groups (including Sinaloa, CJNG, and Tren de Aragua) as foreign terrorist organizations enables asset freezes, severe 'material support' penalties, and aggressive disruption of financial networks, which attacks the core of cartel power.
- Shield of the Americas enables real-time intelligence sharing and joint military coordination among partner nations (Argentina, El Salvador, Peru, Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay, Chile), breaking down information silos.
- Brazil, whose president Lula was re-elected, is not expected to join the coalition, leaving it as the critical holdout.
- Cartels exploit gaps in coordinated enforcement, so a major country outside the coalition becomes a refuge or operating space for them.
Assumptions
- Terrorist designations and financial disruption are effective against cartels, not just symbolic or easily circumvented.
- Shared intelligence and military coordination will actually be used effectively and will not cause sovereignty, civil liberties, or escalation problems.
- Lula's government will not cooperate with the U.S. through other channels, and non-membership means weaker enforcement.
- Criminal activity in Brazil is driven mainly by lack of participation in this U.S.-led framework rather than by domestic socioeconomic or policy factors.
- The author's experience as a defense attorney gives reliable insight into how cartels operate and which strategies work.
- Cartels will shift operations to non-participating jurisdictions rather than being deterred or displaced elsewhere.