Serbia's student-led opposition could defeat Vučić, and a victory would reverberate across Europe
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/mishaglenny. "A gen Z protest movement could be about to oust Serbia’s strongman. Here’s why that will shake Europe | Misha Glenny | The Guardian." October 21, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Serbia's student-led opposition has a real chance of beating the long-ruling Vučić this Sunday, much as Serbs ousted Milošević in 2000. He says Vučić's increasingly desperate tactics show he feels threatened. A student win would shake Europe, help Serbia move closer to the EU, and show that outsiders were wrong to give up on Serbian democracy.
Conclusion
A victory by the student-led opposition (the Student List) over Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia's upcoming parliamentary election is plausible, and if it happens it will send shock waves across Europe, opening the way to faster EU integration and weakening Russian leverage in the Balkans. The EU was therefore wrong to write off Serbian democracy.
Premises
- Serbia has a precedent: in 2000 voters defeated the strongman Milošević despite his control of the media, judiciary and security forces, and mass street protests then forced him out.
- Vučić has held near-total control of Serbia for 14 years but is now on the back foot for the first time, as Milošević was in 2000.
- The student protest movement began in November 2024 after the Novi Sad station canopy collapse killed 16 people, and it has grown through 2025 and 2026 despite coercion and repression.
- The students have turned protest energy into an electoral force, the Student List, which has candidates from many walks of life, a simple slogan and polling that ranges from a lead of almost 10 points to a tied race, with higher turnout favouring the opposition.
- Vučić is acting like a leader who feels threatened: he is tightening his grip on the media, escalating nationalist rhetoric, courting Dodik and Moscow, and allowing a state funeral for Ratko Mladić.
- Orbán's defeat earlier this year sent shock waves across Europe, and a Vučić defeat would do the same, notably by enabling swifter EU integration and reducing Russian pressure on Europe's 'soft underbelly'.
Assumptions
- Vučić's aggressive tactics signal real vulnerability rather than ordinary electoral strategy or confidence in his control of the system.
- A Student List victory would be recognised and honoured rather than overturned or neutralised through manipulation or violence.
- The Student List would pursue pro-EU integration and distance Serbia from Russia if it governed.
- The 2000 Milošević precedent and the Orbán defeat are informative analogies for Serbia's present situation.
- Opposition momentum from street protests will translate into votes at the ballot box.
- The EU's perceived indifference is a mistake rather than a reasoned response to Serbian conditions.