Russia Benefits Most from the U.S. War on Iran While Ukraine Suffers
Source: Joseph Addington. "Russia Wins the War on Iran - The American Conservative." March 14, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
The author argues that while nobody truly wins wars, Russia comes out ahead from America's war with Iran. This happens because oil prices go up (helping Russia's economy), America has to use up weapons defending against Iran instead of sending them to Ukraine, and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine get put on hold.
Conclusion
Russia is the primary beneficiary of the U.S. war on Iran, while Ukraine is significantly harmed by the conflict
Premises
- The war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving up oil prices and increasing Russian oil revenue
- The U.S. has been forced to scale back sanctions on Russian oil to maintain global supply and keep domestic prices down
- Massive expenditure of U.S. interceptor missiles defending against Iranian attacks depletes weapons that would have gone to Ukraine
- The war has paused diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which hurts Ukraine more than Russia
- Russia's unique diplomatic position with Iran, Israel, and Gulf states makes it valuable as a mediator
- The war exposes American hypocrisy and advances Russia's preferred vision of multipolarity over U.S. hegemony
- Russian trust in U.S.-led negotiations has been damaged, reducing incentives for Russian concessions to Ukraine
Assumptions
- Ukraine's military position depends heavily on continued U.S. weapons supplies
- Higher oil prices directly benefit Russia's war economy
- Diplomatic negotiations would generally favor Ukraine over continued warfare
- Russia's relationships with multiple Middle Eastern actors give it genuine mediating capability
- The timing of this conflict particularly disadvantages Ukraine given expected Russian spring offensive