Rogers Will Defeat El-Sayed Because El-Sayed's Extremism Will Backfire in Michigan
Source: "HUGH HEWITT: Rogers vs. El-Sayed is the Senate race America must watch | Fox News." August 6, 2026. www.foxnews.com
The Gist
Hugh Hewitt argues that Republican Mike Rogers will beat Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Senate race because El-Sayed is so extreme (especially on Israel and Iran) that he'll scare off moderate voters and energize opposition, while Rogers just needs to replicate his 2024 turnout to win. Hewitt frames this race as a bellwether for whether America moves further left or returns to center-right politics.
Conclusion
Mike Rogers will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race against Abdul El-Sayed because El-Sayed's extreme, out-of-mainstream positions will galvanize a broad backlash among Michigan's otherwise moderate electorate.
Premises
- Rogers already garnered 48.30% of the vote in 2024 (2,693,680 votes) in a losing Senate bid, meaning he needs only similar turnout to win in 2026.
- El-Sayed holds extreme, anti-Israel positions, including sympathy for Islamist causes and reluctance to condemn the death of a violent dictator (Khamenei), which will alienate mainstream voters.
- El-Sayed's rhetoric and associations (e.g., attacks on AIPAC, endorsement from figures like Hasan Piker) will be perceived as antisemitic by most Jews and many non-Jews.
- El-Sayed's extremism will nationalize the race, drawing massive media attention, fundraising, and high-profile campaigning from national GOP figures (Trump, Vance) supporting Rogers.
- Michigan is fundamentally a 'normal,' common-sense Midwestern state, not dominated by coastal elites, and thus its electorate will ultimately reject radicalism in favor of a experienced, responsible legislator like Rogers.
- The intensity of opposition to El-Sayed (from Jewish Democrats, moderates, and national donors) will offset the usual low turnout challenges of a non-presidential election year.
Assumptions
- Voter turnout patterns from a presidential election year (2024) can be used to predict outcomes in a midterm year if turnout is sufficiently energized.
- Perceptions of El-Sayed as antisemitic or extremist will translate into actual votes against him rather than mobilizing his base more strongly.
- Michigan's electorate is more ideologically moderate/centrist than El-Sayed's positions, and this moderation will decide the election.
- National attention and outside funding will favor Rogers more than it energizes El-Sayed's coalition.
- 'Extremism' as defined by the author (anti-Israel stances, Islamist sympathies) is an accurate and fair characterization of El-Sayed's actual policy positions rather than a rhetorical framing.
- The 'from the River to the Sea' chant and similar rhetoric associated with El-Sayed indicate indifference to U.S. national security.